Türkiye sold nearly $25 billion of goods abroad in June, its strongest June on record, and consumer inflation slowed to 32.11%, a shade below what economists had expected. The two prints landed the same morning and pointed the same way: the economy is still growing its export base while the long grind on prices inches lower.
Exports reached $24.94 billion in June, up 21.9% from a year earlier, the Trade Ministry said in its provisional bulletin. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat put the bigger number in front of reporters in Istanbul: rolling 12-month exports hit $278 billion, a record, and goods and services exports together crossed $400 billion on an annual basis for the first time.
Imports rose faster in the month, up 23.1% to $35.32 billion, so the trade gap widened. The June deficit came in at $10.38 billion, and exports covered 70.6% of imports. Over the first half of the year, exports were up 3.6% to $136.06 billion and the deficit grew 7.4%.
Germany took the most Turkish goods in June at $1.97 billion, ahead of the United States and Italy, and the European Union remained the largest single market. Manufacturing made up 93.7% of everything Türkiye shipped in June, with automotive leading the sectors at $3.8 billion, followed by chemicals and steel.
On prices, the annual rate eased from 32.61% in May, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Monthly inflation was 0.99%, and an Anadolu Ajansı survey had looked for a slightly hotter 32.17% on the year. Housing and utilities stayed the heaviest weight, up 45.14% over 12 months, with food close behind at 35.45%.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek called the export run a sign that "the resilience of our economy to shocks continues to increase." He did not paper over the strain. Şimşek said the lagged effects of higher energy prices will show up in the trade balance in the months ahead, and that the current-account deficit will widen, though he expects it to stay at "sustainable" levels.
The disinflation is real but slow, and the core readings ran hotter than the headline. Kutay Gözgör, research director at Kuveyt Türk, noted core indices still climbing month on month and tied part of the relief to falling oil, after Middle East tensions cooled and the Strait of Hormuz reopened to fuller traffic. He expects the central bank to hold its policy rate at 37% when it meets on 23 July, with a first cut of about 100 basis points not likely before 10 September. Haluk Bürümcekçi of AA Finans sees year-end inflation landing between 28% and 30%.
The exporters' mood was brighter than the deficit suggests. In June, 915 companies shipped goods abroad for the first time, widening the base of exporters beyond the established names. Mustafa Gültepe, head of the Turkish Exporters Assembly, said five provinces, Elazığ, Isparta, Tekirdağ, Adana and Kocaeli, set their own export records, and sales to the Gulf jumped 41% to $2.64 billion, which he linked to easing regional tension. His stated target is to push Türkiye into the world's top 10 exporters.
Markets read the day calmly. The BIST 100 had closed Thursday up 0.73% at 14,455 points and opened Friday higher, with the lira near 46.8 to the dollar.