S&P Global has raised US economic growth forecast for 2021 to 6.7%, from its previous estimate of 6.5%.
The financial analytics company on late Thursday also raised its gross domestic product (GDP) expectation for 2022 to 3.7%, from 3.1% estimate made in March.
“A better vaccination outlook, a faster reopening schedule, and $2.8 trillion from two stimulus packages have turbo-charged the U.S. economic recovery this year and the next,” it said in a statement.
“The unemployment rate will likely reach its pre-crisis range of under 4% by first-quarter 2023,” it added.
The firm, however, warned that US labor market still has a long way to reinstate the 22.4 million jobs lost during the first months of pandemic, adding it will not likely happen before the fourth quarter of 2022.
S&P Global said inflation in US has jumped due to reopening and rising demand, but said it agrees with the Federal Reserve that rising inflation would be “largely transitory.”
“We assume the Fed’s first rate hike will be in first-quarter 2023, followed by another in the third quarter, and two more in 2024,” it said.
The central bank signaled last week it could make two rate hikes in 2023, by 0.25% each.
S&P Global also increased its 2021 GDP growth projections for the major economies in Latin America to 5.9%, from its previous estimate of 4.9%.
It said major economies’ services sectors in the region have been performing better than expected so far this year.
“Households and business are adapting quickly to living in a pandemic, and lockdowns are having much less of an impact on activity than anticipated,” it said in a separate statement.
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