The coronavirus pandemic’s impact on G20 economies will be greater than previous estimates and is projected to cause contraction of 4.6%, rather than 4%, in 2020, according to global credit rating agency Moody’s. 

The agency revised its earlier projection in a statement late on Monday night, saying the world economy had revived, but had a long and difficult road ahead.

It said complete economic recovery was likely to be a prolonged process, with the second quarter of 2020 set to be the worst for the global economy since World War II.

The agency said developed economies in the G20 would contract by 6.4% this year, whereas developing economies would shrink by 1.6%.

At the same time, though, Moody’s increased its 2021 growth forecast for G20 economies from 4.8% to 5.2%.

It said a gradual recovery was expected starting in the second half of this year, but the process depended on the normalization of various economies and protection of public health.

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