The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised up its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2020 by $0.90 per barrel, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report for August released on Tuesday.

The international benchmark is now expected to average $41.40 per barrel this year, up from its previous estimate of $40.50 a barrel.

Brent crude prices averaged $50 per barrel during the first quarter of 2020 and $29 per barrel during the second quarter of this year. EIA forecasts $43.1 a barrel in the third quarter of 2020, and $43.5 a barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.

The EIA said it estimates that Brent will average $49.50 per barrel next year, as crude oil inventories around the world decrease in 2021.

The administration says it expects “high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward price pressures in the coming months, but as inventories decline into 2021, those upward price pressures will increase.”

US crude output revised down

The EIA revised down its US crude oil production estimate for this year by 370,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to its STEO report for August.

Crude oil production in the country is now estimated to average 11.3 million bpd in 2020. This level is forecast to decrease to an average of 11.1 million bpd in 2021.

The US surpassed Saudi Arabia and Russia in November 2018 to become the world’s largest crude oil producer.

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