The novel coronavirus pandemic is expected to cause “the greatest disruption to global economic activity since the Second World War,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said Wednesday.

It will affect the banks’ emerging economies and a rapid recovery is not guaranteed, the bank said in a statement.

Normalcy is expected to return in the second half of 2020 in the bank’s positive scenario but if lockdowns remain in place much longer, effects on the economy will be deeper.

“This would have a negative impact on the potential rate of medium-term growth and may result in deep

Read more: COVID-19: Biggest hit to global economy since WW II