By Ilnur Cevik
Turkish Daily News- Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktas can hold rallies and run around every Turkish TV channel to press his case that the accession of the "Cyprus Republic" to the European Union is illegal but the fact of the matter is that his words and the support of the Turkish conservative establishment which has helped him so far to defy international world opinion has become meaningless as of Wednesday...
The minute the new Greek Cypriot president signed the accession treaty in the name of the "Cyprus Republic" it became official that the Turkish Cypriots and for that matter Turkey are now left in the cold and will either have to pay a heavy price to join the EU or set a new course without any EU aspirations.
The Turkish Cypriots will now have to give up several of their past demands to be able to convince their Greek Cypriot counterparts to agree to a solution that will help them ease their way into the EU as part of the Cyprus Republic. Without a solution on Cyprus no one will be able to convince the Greek Cypriots or Greece that they should not block Turkey's full membership prospects. We are told by EU sources that if Turkey fulfills all the full membership criteria and makes a good effort to solve the Cyprus issue but fails it will be very hard for the Greeks to veto Ankara but past experience shows how the member states have been unable to prevent such vetoes...
What people have to realize at the moment there is a very delicate technical problem that has arisen with the Greek Cypriots signing the accession treaty. Under normal circumstances it would be practically impossible to set up a new partnership state on Cyprus... But the EU has referred to the state as "Cyprus" and not republic of Cyprus to give one last chance to the Turkish Cypriots to work for a solution and set up a joint state with the Greeks until May 2004 when the Greek Cypriots become full members of the EU...
Let no one make any mistake that the issue will turn into a new major thorn in Turkish-EU relations: Although the EU has no "sovereign status" and thus a "geography of jurisdiction" on political terms Ankara will come under accusations that it is a country "occupying" a part of EU territory.
Besides, this from the date of completion of the Greek Cypriot accession in May 2004, besides the approval of Athens, Ankara will also need the approval of the Greek Cypriot administration even for starting accession talks.
Apart from all that the Greek Cypriot leadership on the one hand, the European Union on the other hand will intensify implementing social, economic and political programs aimed at reaching Turkish Cypriot people. With no sign on the horizon for an end to the economic blockade on northern Cyprus, dissent among Turkish Cypriots against the conservative government and Denktas, polarization of the northern Cyprus population as "pro-settlement Turkish Cypriots" and "anti-settlement Turkish Cypriots plus mainland settlers" may land the north into an unmanageable situation.
Has Denktas and his hard-liners in Turkey bargained for all this?