AKSAM- Columnist Tuncay Ozkan comments on the current situation in Iraq and possible developments in the region in the future. A summary of his column is as follows:
With the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s statue, the phase of the war of taking Baghdad and Iraq has to a great extent ended. However, neither Saddam nor his family, nor the forces attached to them have turned up. Can this war be considered finished without their capture? It’s impossible for Saddam and his men to escape and hide in Iraq for very long. At any rate, nobody thought that the US would lose this war. But what will happen now?
Will there be more resistance within Iraq? Analysts say that from now on, it will no longer be a war of armies. Time will tell what those who favor Saddam or the Iraqi nation will do concerning Iraq and how they will respond to US and British soldiers. They will either surrender or else fight them using guerilla tactics. If the predictions of the US and other Western sources prove accurate, Saddam will use his chemical and biological weapons because the US justified its overthrowing Saddam and invading Iraq on the existence of these weapons. They have never put forth seizing Iraq’s oil or other natural resources as a rationale. However, the conclusion is foregone, because now Iraq is in the hands of the US and Britain.
Now the US is effectively Turkey’s neighbor. Turkey is uneasy about the Kurds’ advance with US forces towards Arbil and Kirkuk. Not the Turks or Kurds, but rather the US will decide when this uneasiness will end. Everybody should be sensitive about how long the Turkish establishment will resist the US’ determined aims. Will the US stop with Iraq? Will there be similar conflicts with Iran or Syria? Then what will Turkey’s role be?
The developments of the last month and what lies in the future depend on the overturning of the status quo. Now we can expect new borders, approaches and policies. Every country and authority is trying to determine their place and stance towards the new order.
Turkey will be affected directly by these changes. Developments following from the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq or Iraq’s territorial integrity breaking down will shape the situation here. A breakdown in Iraq’s territorial integrity and its national and unified state structure would trigger a total change in all Turkey’s policies and regional values. The formation of federal-type states in the region would also make Turkey very uneasy. Turkey should also decide how it should deal with the European Union in terms of such developments.
Turkey should certainly convince the US concerning its stance against the establishment of a Kurdish state. Otherwise, future developments might lead to disaster. This situation applies to both Turkey and the US. There might be new regional conflicts, huge ones carrying sweeping changes.
The Kurdish groups in the region should be disarmed following the war, and the US should make sure of this, so as to head off future regional conflicts. The participation of Turkey and Iraq’s Turkmen is critical in terms of the administration of Iraq. Turkey’s investment in terms of shaping the Middle East should be increased, as is only proper. The US should never let the future of Iraq be shaped or the expulsion of the Turkmen from Kirkuk or Arbil without listening first to Turkey; this would be wrong. Turkey should also attend closely to its relations with Iran, Syria and Russia, and be prepared for regional surprises.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION