MILLIYET- Columnist Taha Akyol comments on the process of reconstructing Iraq’s political and social structures in the postwar period. A summary of his column is as follows:
Ankara is feeling relieved about one issue even as its concern about another issue grows. Its relief is about northern Iraq: The war is winding down, there’s no possibility of a refugees flood to Turkey from northern Iraq and the PKK terrorist organization is withdrawing to the east and the south, that is, to the Iranian border. Ankara’s relief comes from how predictions of mass migrations to Turkey from Iraq turned out to be mistaken. It also believes that the US will send more soldiers to northern Iraq to preclude any PKK activity which might trigger Turkish intervention there. This is one of the issues on which we reached agreement with the US. These are good developments.
Let’s talk about the concerns. Both Bush and Blair’s people are confused about the reconstruction of Iraq. Washington is considering three names for the new Iraqi prime minister: Behram Salih, the liberal Sunni Adnan Pacaci and the secular Shiite Ahmet Celebi. Neither the names for the new government nor its structure has been settled on. Although there are ideas floating around such as the system of Ottoman provinces, or federation or a canton system, there are many unclear details which might lead to quarrelling, or even an ethnic civil war. Most importantly, will the Iraqis adopt the US version and its list of names? How will the ‘price’ asked for by the Kurds, who are in a war shoulder to shoulder with the US, and the Arabs’ rejection of this be reconciled? What about Iraq’s Turkmen? What will happen if ethnic and religious groups come to blows?
Bush’s envoy to the Iraqi opposition Zalmay Khalilzad will again arrive in Ankara soon. As the threats of immigration and terrorism recede, the issue of the reconstruction of Iraq, mainly northern Iraq, will be the focus. Reports received in Ankara say that the peshmergas advancing towards Kirkuk and Mosul aren’t large enough to tip things politically. Still Ankara has warned the US about this issue, and it will be discussed with Khalilzad as well.
As I have been saying, the postwar period in Iraq will be harder than the war itself. Afghanistan was a tribal society. A structure was established there by reconciling with the tribal chiefs. However, the situation in Iraq won’t be quite so easy. There are tribes in Iraq as well, but there is also a large citizenry. The new regime will necessarily depend on the country’s educated class, but they are scattered and disorganized due to Saddam’s repression of any organization besides his ruling Baath Party. If the new regime, which is expected to be unifying, depends on this disorganized group, then disaster could follow. I hope our concerns and fears will ultimately prove unfounded.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION