As The Iraq War Wears On

BY SAMI KOHEN (MILLIYET)
Columnist Sami Kohen comments on the possible adverse effects on Turkey of an extended Iraq war. A summary of his column is as follows:
Nothing could be worse: The Iraq war seems set to wear on... Since even US officials recently admitted that the war would last longer than expected, unfortunately that’s not just rumor but bona fide fact.
Let’s think about how such a long war would affect Turkey. What kind of problems are we likely to encounter in the future as the war stretches on day after day?
The effects of the war on our economy will be felt in the daily lives of ordinary citizens. Since the war will deal a great blow to tourism, Turkey will suffer some $10-12 billion in losses. Exports will suffer, investments will come to a halt and consequently people will lose jobs. It’s very frightening to even think about the possible political and social problems in the wake of such developments.
As the war wears on, Turkey will face even bigger political problems. The US might again begin putting pressure on Turkey concerning its northern front. In addition, as US and British losses in Iraq mount, the Bush administration is likely to accuse Turkey of betraying our strategic partnership and hold us responsible for their losses. The US will also begin considering Iraqi Kurdish groups its closest allies, and will accordingly want to reward them with a political prize.
The Arab-Islamic world’s opposition to the Iraq war will grow. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will find itself lumped together with opponents of the US, including Syria and Iran. The political results of such a development will be extremely dangerous.
Unfortunately, neither our country nor the rest of the world is able to prevent this war from dragging on, which is why Turkey has to take steps to minimize the harm we could suffer. In fact, it’s no easy task to develop sound strategies under such ever-changing and ambiguous circumstances. The smartest thing for our government to do is to develop a flexible policy.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION