AKSAM- Columnist Semih Idiz commnets on recent political developments concerning the Iraq issue and Turkey’s relations with Europe. A summary of his column is as follows:
Turkey is about to hit very troubled waters regarding the Iraq issue. All has been said and done to settle the problem through peaceful means, yet these efforts have amounted to nothing. The UN Security Council has gone completely bankrupt, as it proved unable to either give what the US wanted or to avert a war in Iraq, in all likelihood. Whereas Washington is now more determined than ever to topple Saddam Hussein, saying, ‘With or without Britain, I will do it.’ The system that keeps the US on its feet desperately needs such a war. For the Bush administration, the UN Security Council’s only relevance to the issue is passing a second UN resolution authorizing military intervention in Iraq, which is a must for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to help him persuade the British public to side with the US. Indeed, Washington has already been convinced that the UN’s days are passed.
Following Parliament’s rejection of a motion earlier this month that would have allowed deployment of US troops in Turkey, the White House asked Ankara to open Turkish airspace to airlift troops and war materiel to northern Iraq. Yet Parliament is not likely to give the overflight permission either. Even if it does so, that would be too late for Washington’s war plans. In short, Turkey has done what the US had never expected from it. Thus, the US may soon want Ankara to share at least some part of its disappointment.
Under these circumstances, Turkey has to find urgent answers to certain challenging questions. For instance, if the US launches an attack on Iraq without Turkey’s aid, will Turkish troops intervene into northern Iraq single-handedly? The answer would surely have serious repercussions in the international community.
On the other hand, the question of how far Turkey could oppose the US in its war plans is also a crucial one, as we are on the verge of a cold war with Europe over both the Cyprus and Kurdish issues. What will the new government’s foreign policy be in an atmosphere of tension with both the US and Europe?
Of course Washington can never dare to completely burn its bridges with Ankara, for Turkey is certainly an important US ally. Nevertheless, it is certain that Turkish-US relations will in the future take a different path.
When it comes to Europe, the Cyprus issue has put our relations into a deadlock. Moreover, the Kurdish problem is likely to create even more tension. Given this, how would Europe react to Turkey’s intervention into northern Iraq on its own?
These are very difficult questions, ones to which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan must find urgent answers.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION