Swamp In Northern Iraq

Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli comments on the possible aftershocks in northern Iraq of the Iraq crisis. A summary of her column is as follows:
The biggest problem facing us now is that the US is preparing to overthrow Saddam Hussein, but it has no firm plans for Iraq’s future. US troop deployments in the region are continuing, and at the same time US officials are holding meetings with both Turkish officials and Kurdish groups. They are trying to determine Iraq’s future at the last minute without offending anybody. What’s worse, Turkey lacks a plan to present to the US concerning Iraq’s future. It only has its sine qua non and ‘red lines’ and of course its thousands of soldiers ready to move into the region to prevent untoward developments.
The northern Iraqi Kurds certainly have a plan. However, they lack the military force necessary to realize their ultimate goal of independence. Towards this goal, on the one hand they are trying to persuade the US and on the other hand to scare off Turkey with their threats of ‘clashes.’ It’s interesting that the northern Iraqi Kurdish groups have recently increased their rhetoric against Turkey. This increasingly threatening voice demonstrates that the US is moving closer to Turkey in its plans concerning Iraq’s future. However, while this situation developed in Turkey’s favor at the diplomatic level, it is likely to hurt Turkish soldiers. The real danger begins here.
Concrete developments during the Iraqi crisis appeared only recently. The Kurdish Parliament in northern Iraq convened and resolved unanimously to oppose foreign troops entering the region. Although Turkey stated that it wanted to participate, it wasn’t invited to a recent meeting of Saddam’s opponents in northern Iraq. The Kurds are trying to act as the de facto rulers of the region and have taken more steps to ensure this. They also didn’t invite northern Iraq’s ethnic Turkmen, whom they accused of collaborating and spying for Turkey, to this meeting. In addition, the pressure against Turkmen in the region controlled by Massoud Barzani’s group has increased. Certain Turkmen leaders were even arrested, which demonstrates these pressures. Developments probably won’t be limited to this.
The threats against Turkey started in northern Iraq, and this worries Turkish officials the most. It’s believed that the Kurdish groups, particularly Barzani’s Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (IKDP) will support the opposition to war by using terrorism and will try to block Ankara’s plans concerning northern Iraq. It’s not farfetched to think that the greatest danger lying in wait for Turkey in the Iraq war will be a new wave of conflict.
This situation is causing a new dilemma for Turkey: either the danger of a new campaign of terrorism, or accepting an independent formation in its backyard. Therefore our deputies in Parliament should examine the proposal on Iraq from this point of view and then vote accordingly.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION