HURRIYET- Columnist Ferai Tinc comments on the complex situation in a possible postwar Iraq. A summary of her column is as follows:
British Prime Minister Tony Blair isn’t the only person saying, ‘Our goal is to remove Saddam from power.’ US Secretary of State Colin Powell also told reporters, ‘Our aim is to put an end to Saddam’s regime, which is squandering the wealth of the Iraqi people on weapons of mass destruction.’ The Pentagon last week established an Office for Restructuring and Humanitarian Aid to Iraq, and the US’ preparations for the post-Saddam period show that no matter what Baghdad does from this point onward, the conclusion is pre-ordained. Understanding that the US has such a secret agenda makes it impossible for us to take the stated goal of disarming Iraq seriously. If the situation had been the opposite, maybe the inspectors would have been successful and regime change would have been accomplished without a war. History won’t forget this nagging doubt. The situation isn’t good. The combination of the US mobilizing the United Nations for the disarmament of Iraq but also having a hidden agenda is threatening all the world’s gains of the last century. The UN, NATO and the underpinnings of all alliances are losing their meaning.
An Iraqi friend of mine recently sent me an article written by a dissenter living under the Baghdad regime. I don’t know his name because it’s secret. The article basically emphasizes the risks of the post-Saddam period. The writer says that the Iraqi people wouldn’t tolerate a ‘temporary international coalition administration,’ headed by a US general or a similar figure. The article stresses that people shouldn’t be deceived into believing that the nation, even though it is suffering under Saddam’s administration, would thereby welcome foreign invaders with joy.
Washington is planning to distribute aid packages to the nation together when dropping its first bombs. I wonder if it’s considering whether this initiative, which may be welcomed with joy by extremely poor people, will be also welcomed by experienced Iraqi people who became poor following the 1991 Gulf War. ‘The opposition living in exile can’t represent us and thus it shouldn’t be included in any postwar government,’ the dissident continued. ‘The Iraqi people can’t stand either the presence of foreign soldiers or a government formula that they didn’t ask for. The insistence on such a formula would cause armed conflicts.’
We have armed Kurdish groups in Iraq’s north, Islamic Shiites with Iranian support numbering 10,000 in the south, many opposition forces spending their lives waiting for the day they will be in power, and millions of others who believe that they are Iraq’s real owners… The situation is very complex. It’s very difficult to predict what will happen during the post-Saddam period. How long will the instability continue? When will a democratic and unified Iraq be established? Even if it’s established, will it have any staying power? Nothing is obvious yet. No matter what some people say, instability is sure to persist for a long period to come.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION