MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen comments on the possible outcomes of Turkey’s saying yes to the deployment of US soldiers in Turkey. A summary of his column is as follows:
Today we’ll examine what would happen if Turkey says yes to the deployment of US soldiers in Turkey for a possible war in Iraq. Saying yes has certain benefits and downsides, just like saying no. The important thing is to consider the issue using a realistic, pragmatic approach.
How would Turkey benefit if it says yes? Everyone is thinking about the great harm that Turkey might suffer in a possible war. Some estimates put the economic toll at $25-30 billion in just one year. In addition, the economic losses Turkey suffered due to the 1991 Gulf War totaled $150 billion. The war and Turkey’s participation in this war are separate issues. If a war breaks out, we could see such problems as oil price increases, drops in tourism, scared investors and choked-off trade, and these trends would affect many countries even if Turkey doesn’t participate in the war. Estimates of Turkey’s losses from reliable sources run very high.
Whatever the scope of our losses, the only way for Turkey to recoup any substantial portion of this toll is to cooperate with the US. If Ankara says no, it will have to foot the war’s bill all by itself. The government is bargaining for an agreement that can lighten its losses as much as possible. It’s very natural for Ankara to bargain hard for the best possible deal politically, militarily and economically. It’s not good that the press has made it seem as if this bargaining is only about the amount of grants and loans. However, there’s no need to make this a matter of honor and sensitivity because sometimes countries try to drive a hard bargain with rich Western powers. Here, the important thing is to not go beyond the other side’s limits of tolerance. Such institutions as the Foreign Ministry, the General Staff Office and the president have had an active role in Turkey’s approach.
If Turkey says yes, another expected key benefit is the strengthening of our hand in shaping the future of Iraq, and especially northern Iraq. Then Turkey will have more of a say and can try to head off trouble down the road. In this respect, it will be able to continue its military presence in northern Iraq as long as it deems necessary. Otherwise our soldiers in northern Iraq might face opposition from Iraq, its people and the international community. It should be accepted that Turkey’s active role in restructuring the region depends on its ability to skillfully use its geostrategic importance.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION