What Happens Next Is Clear

MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen writes on US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s presentation to the UN Security Council and what comes next. A summary of his column is as follows:
After US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s presentation on Wednesday to the UN Security Council, the world split into two camps: those believing that Powell made a ‘convincing’ case, and those who found his evidence insufficient. The number of the latter easily dwarfs the former.
What Powell’s address has in fact showed the world is that the Bush administration is determined to attack Iraq.
We have already seen the true intentions of those who believe that Iraq is actively working to deceive the UN inspectors. However, what about the others? We don’t know whether the countries which have found Powell’s evidence unconvincing will be able to avert a possible war. Germany wants the US to hand over its evidence to UN weapons inspectors for further examination. France is requesting that the UN send more inspectors to Iraq. Russia believes that the UN inspectors need more time to finish their work.
However, the Bush administration believes that such efforts have no hope of stopping Saddam and so seems determined to act in line with its own plans and strategies without taking into consideration the reservations of many countries. The US armed forces are getting ready for war, and the Bush administration is trying to tie together a firm coalition with countries likely to lend their support to a US-led war in Iraq.
What will happen now?
The UN weapons inspectors will accelerate their work and present another report to the UN Security Council on Feb. 14. I believe that the US will then try to persuade the Security Council to pass another resolution giving it the international OK for a military offensive. However, if Russia, France or China vetoes the US demands, then all bets are off. Such a development would be a real letdown for the US. If the Bush administration attacks Saddam despite these countries’ objections, it will probably face strong opposition and criticism. However, I don’t expect that this will happen. I believe that the UN member states will be able to prepare a document in line with their own national interests. Under such a document approved by all the UN member states, countries which are currently opposed to a military operation will turn the other way and let the Bush administration do what it wants. With the UN, it has always been so.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION