STAR- Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli comments on how the European Union thinks an Iraq war might affect Turkey’s government. A summary of her column is as follows:
If you read between the lines of various official statements, you can clearly see what sort of a game is being played in Turkey. Turkey has been hosting a great many high-ranking foreign guests over the last two weeks. Most of them came from European Union countries. This series of visits started with the German foreign minister. Then EU Term President Greece’s foreign minister, next Term President Italy’s foreign minister and EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen visited Turkey. This week Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh will visit Turkey. All of those who came to Turkey gave the same message: Firstly, they praised the new Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Then they said that Turkey should certainly implement ‘administrative reform’ so it can reach EU standards as soon as possible. This desire for ‘administrative reform,’ which some expressed diplomatically and others more bluntly, amounts to nothing but increasing the civilian authority’s leverage vis-à-vis Turkey’s military establishment, that is, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). European diplomats told me that the issue of the TSK’s civilian control was urgent at this juncture, adding that the reason for this urgency was the expected US operation against Iraq.
Actually the Europeans are concerned about the stability of Turkey’s single-party government’s, in other words, its being hurt in the uproar over war. Europeans are also aware that the AKP government is reeling from an outcry from its grassroots against the US’ requests for military support. They also think that Turkey’s soldiers are certainly ready, even willing for the operation. They add that the TSK has a chilly relationship with the AKP, and from these three observations they conclude: ‘If the US launches an operation against Iraq and Turkey supports this and lets the US station soldiers in the country, the TSK’s political leverage would increase enormously.’
The greatest fear in this context is of a split within the AKP due to the government’s support for the US operation. A rift in Parliament over a vote to send Turkish soldiers abroad isn’t expected. However, the proposal for upgrading our airbases and ports will be the first indication concerning the AKP’s stance. The real sign concerning the AKP group’s future will emerge during the vote on stationing US soldiers in Turkey. Europeans think that the upcoming state of war will cause the scheduled by-election in Siirt to be postponed, thus holding off for now AKP leader Erdogan’s bid to become prime minister. They also emphasize that such a postponement could accelerate or exacerbate a split within the AKP ranks. The weeks before and after the Feast of the Sacrifice (Kurban Bayram) holiday are very critical for Turkey both in terms of the foreign political developments and domestic political balances.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION