AKSAM- Columnist Semih Idiz comments on the possible effects of the Iraqi crisis. A summary of his column is as follows:
According to some observers, the Iraqi war to come won’t last long. Of course the fighting will claim many civilian lives. The Kurds will support the US in this war, and the Sunni Arabs won’t be hostile towards the US. Maybe when they see the first US tank, they will immediately desert Saddam Hussein and go over to their ‘saviors.’ The Shiites in the south are the ‘x factor’ in this calculation. However, it’s not believed that Iran, which doesn’t owe anything to Saddam, will provoke the Shiites against the US at this stage. To the contrary, Tehran is expected to take a cautious and pragmatic stance. In addition, it’s believed that Washington will give priority to the Middle East conflict after the war in order not to further exacerbate hostility in the Islamic world. As part of this, US President George W. Bush is expected to push for the eventual establishment of an independent Palestinian state, one with its own territory.
Meanwhile, Iraq will be reintegrated into the international economy, and this situation will provide those who stood alongside the US with new opportunities. While the US protects Mosul and Kirkuk during the initial stage, Iraq’s Kirkuk-Yumurtalik pipeline into Turkey will be reopened within a short period of time.
It’s believed that the real problem for the US will come from hostility among the Iraqi people. The Shiites have their own bloody accounts to settle since the last Gulf War. Kurds also have years-long scores to settle. Probably we won’t have to wait for long to see how this all unfolds.
If Washington enters a war without the support of the United Nations, the European Union and NATO, and a consensus from them, it would be effectively destroying the post-World War II international framework. The UN would lose its significance in short order, and the EU would be divided, making it impossible for it to establish common foreign and defense policies. As for NATO, in which all decisions are made by reaching consensus, it will face the risk of disintegration. All these might seem far-fetched scenarios, but they aren’t. We already see the situation headed this way in the UN Security Council’s inability to set parameters to the US’ ambitions, in 10 EU members’ rebellion against France and Germany (which are working against the US) and in Turkey’s difficulty in getting NATO support.
In sum, the possible impact of the Iraqi crisis for Turkey isn’t limited to factors just within Iraq. Following the war, a new order, good or bad, will emerge not only in the Middle East, but also throughout the entire world. Our strategists should consider this because Turkey’s place in this new order will be very important for us. In other words, it’s time to not only see the trees, but also the forest.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION