AKSAM- Columnist Semih Idiz comments on Turkey’s situation concerning the Iraq crisis. A summary of his column is as follows:
The Iraq crisis will enter a new and more difficult phase for Turkey later today with the presentation of the United Nations weapons inspectors report to Secretary-General Kofi Annan. The reason is that the US and Britain have made clear their intention to go to war. If chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix’s report points the finger at Iraq, then of course everything will be easier because the possibility of the UN passing a new resolution authorizing military action against Iraq will increase enormously. This would take Turkey off the diplomatic hot seat, because Ankara could be seen as acting in accordance with the international community, not US wishes.
However, if Blix’s report is ambiguous, something expected by the US and Britain, the winds of war won’t stop blowing immediately because the arrow has already left the bow of these two countries, whose aim is to eliminate Saddam Hussein. This scenario would force Turkey to face certain unpleasant possibilities. Recently I pored over old news reports and confirmed that back in 1991 the Turkish people didn’t want the Gulf War either, which put the government in a dilemma. However, there is a great difference between the current situation and the one in 1991. At that time, President Turgut Ozal acted according to the US requests, effectively ignoring what the people wanted. He also rebuffed the military’s warnings, leaving the then chief of General Staff no choice but to resign. The people’s angry reaction at least hindered his intention to have Turkish soldiers fight alongside US forces in Iraq. And as Ozal predicted, history bore out whether Turkey was to profit from this situation.
We should admit that in the current situation, the Justice and Development (AKP) government has so far done the best that it can. However, Ankara has to answer its strategic partner’s pressure. Due to its strategic position it’s impossible for Turkey, which has no tradition of neutrality, to be in the middle on this. When US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recently said, ‘Germany and France are the old Europe… [but] vast numbers of other countries in Europe are with the United States on this issue,’ he was actually telling the truth, which makes the things more difficult for Ankara. Because except for these two countries, there really haven’t been many European Union members clearly against the US drive to war. Such countries as Italy, Spain, Poland and Hungary, which the US thinks of as its supporters, haven’t come out in opposition to war.
In addition, the new EU members are expected to support the US. In other words, Washington has effectively divided the EU, and this situation will cause Turkey to face a serious dilemma. Should Turkey act together with Germany and France, which didn’t treat it very generously at December’s EU summit, or rather cast its lot with the majority of its fellow NATO members? Our choice will cause long-lasting results in terms of Turkey’s foreign and defense policies. Turkey is facing a truly difficult test.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION