AKSAM- Columnist Semih Idiz writes about a possible war in Iraq and its effect on the future of Turkish-US and Turkish-Arab relations. A summary of his column is as follows:
With each passing day we realize more and more how critical is the situation Turkey finds itself in. It’s not terribly difficult to guess what the US is thinking about our country right about now, as my colleague Sedat Ergin said in his column a few days ago that Ankara’s stance had led the US to extensively revise its military plans on Iraq. Moreover, Umit Enginsoy, the Washington correspondent for news channel NTV, yesterday reported US officials’ ‘disappointment’ about Turkey. It would be no a great surprise should the dimensions of the Turkish-US ‘strategic partnership’ be revised in a not-too-distant future. Americans are so sensitive about the Iraq issue that they will surely make Turkey share their disappointment. Here’s what one US diplomat told me recently: ‘In April, when the Armenian lobby pushes the US Congress on this whole so-called genocide issue, it will be very difficult for President Bush to throw his weight on Turkey’s side.’
But if our government has truly decided to pursue its foreign policy on the Iraq issue independent of US concerns, I can’t fault them for that. Yet this will no doubt cost Turkey a great deal. The problem is that while Turkey is trying to play the ‘independent,’ it cannot help toeing the US line once Ankara comes to realize the true gravity of the situation. There were reports yesterday saying that Turkish and the US intelligence services are working together to capture Saddam Hussein’s spies in northern Iraq.
On the other hand, there are similar delicate balances in Turkey’s relations with the Arab world, too. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul’s recent tour of Arab capitals has created a hopeful atmosphere. Yet the debates on Kirkuk and Mosul and Turkey’s possible intervention in northern Iraq in case of a war are casting a shadow on Turkish-Arab relations. Let’s not forget two things: In the past, Arabs have always strictly opposed and condemned Turkey each time the country carried out military operations in northern Iraq as part of our struggle against the terrorist PKK. Moreover, these countries see Kirkuk and Mosul as Arab soil. And still some of them even think of Turkey as ‘an imperialist force,’ as our country is successor to the Ottoman Empire.
All in all, the Iraq issue has left Turkey on the horns of a grave dilemma. On the one hand there is the risk that Turkish-US relations might be shattered, and on the other there are the Arabs.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION