TURKIYE- Columnist Yilmaz Oztuna writes about a possible war in Iraq and international opposition to US plans for one. A summary of his column is as follows:
The extensive, months-long US military buildup for war in Iraq constitutes a valuable opportunity for historians to witness how the groundwork is laid for modern wars. Parallel with this portentous military buildup, there’s been no letup in US diplomatic maneuvers and propaganda. As we enter a new year, the prospect of the US getting what it wants in Iraq without resorting to military means is growing more probable. On the UN Security Council now sit the two most powerful countries clearly opposed to war in Iraq, namely France and Germany, the first as a permanent member and the second as a rotating one, and they will hold the council’s chair for the next two months. Syria and Pakistan will no doubt vote against a prospective military campaign. Thus, it would be very difficult or even impossible for the US to get a resolution confirming its designs on Iraq. Moreover, neither Russia nor China is expected to support the US. That is, none of the above countries would approve of the US seizing control of the oil resources in the Caspian and Persian Gulf regions.
So there is no choice left for the US other than unilaterally invading Iraq at all costs, even if doing so means acting against the Security Council. Yet, the US is fully capable of doing that, and there’s no force that could hold it back. But if that happens, anti-American sentiment will explode worldwide, and Washington will face an exacerbated set of foreign policy problems.
The US will firstly launch the most destructive air strike ever on Iraq to preempt further US casualties in a land operation, and then send its tanks into Baghdad. Tens of thousands of Iraqis will die, and millions will be injured. The US will never abandon its designs on Iraq and the Middle East, but there are signs that it may carry out its plans without resorting to war, as President Bush’s New Year address hinted at. But again, it all hinges on the stance of Saddam Hussein. He will make his choice. If he steps down, there will be no need for war. It’s as simple as that.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION