HURRIYET- Columnist Sedat Ergin comments on Turkish-US relations ahead of a possible war on Iraq. A summary of his column is as follows:
The ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) decisions on Turkey’s prospective role in a possible US-led military attack on Iraq will shape critical operational factors of the war such as its timing, strategy and price tag. If Ankara allows the US to deploy its troops through Turkish soil into northern Iraq, Baghdad will be faced by a two-front war, from both the north and south, and thus the war will likely be over in short order. Moreover, the cost of the operation will be brought to a minimum. But if Turkey rejects the US proposal and confines its cooperation to allowing the US to use certain airbases and its airspace, then Washington will have to redraw its war plans and turn its eyes to the south, that is the Persian Gulf region.
Yet Ankara’s decision hinges on Washington’s stance on Turkey’s expectations from the US. First of all, Ankara wants to be assured that its prospective economic losses will be covered by the Bush administration to a reasonable extent. However, what Bush has offered up to now would barely meets Turkey’s demands. The reported amount of US compensation is only $3.5 billion, a mere drop in the bucket. And even this is not guaranteed, as the US Congress has yet to approve the sum.
Apart from all that, there are other as-yet unclear points as to the operational role of northern Iraq as well as the future of the country in the postwar period. Undeniably, Turkey and the US have diverging views on both issues. For example, while Ankara has serious reservations about a federal model that the US is pushing to establish in post-Saddam Iraq, the US is strongly opposed to a major Turkish buildup in northern Iraq meant to keep at bay a wave of refugees fleeing war. In case of a war, Turkey may dramatically and unsurprisingly up the number of its troops near the border.
Moreover, the US knows very well that Turkey is fully capable of sending in reinforcements to northern Iraq whenever necessary. And of course the role of Turkey’s military divisions in the region will not be confined to merely preempting a possible wave of refugees. Ankara will have the opportunity to head off any undesirable contingencies and prevent any fait accompli there. The presence of Turkish military forces in the region will give Turkey the opportunity to have its say on the future of Iraq.
Ankara’s determination to enter northern Iraq is rattling nerves in the Pentagon, which has its own plans to attack Baghdad from the north. Washington, as Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz unambiguously put during his recent visits to Ankara, projects a tri-lateral mechanism in northern Iraq where the US will take on the role of a coordinating force beside Turkish military divisions and Kurdish groups. Ankara is firmly opposed to any arrangement putting Turkey on the same level as the Kurds, and instead wants itself to play the role of referee and parent in the region. This is because Turkey’s degree of involvement in a possible war will determine the strength of the country’s hand in Iraq’s post-Saddam future.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION