MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen writes about the EU’s Copenhagen summit this Thursday and Friday and Turkey’s expectation to receive a date at the gathering. A summary of his column is as follows:
Turkey is holding its breath and waiting for Thursday’s Copenhagen summit, an event which will shape our country’s future. The uncertainty about the decisions forthcoming on Turkey has heightened both the curiosity and excitement of the Turkish people. One of those decisions of course is directly related to the Turkish-EU relations, and centers on the question of whether or not the EU will extend a date for the beginning of Turkey’s accession negotiations. The other has to do with the Cyprus’ EU membership and thus is linked to peace talks on the island.
The final word has yet to be made on the start of Turkey’s accession talks. The best scenario, or at least what Ankara is hoping for, is to receive a specific and unconditional date for 2003. And it is quite natural for Turkish diplomacy to work for this until the very last minute. However, no such decision will come. Yet the worst scenario, one proposed by Schroeder and Chirac, envisaging a conditional date for 2005, is not likely to get a general support form the EU ranks. So, a middle way between the two is highly probable: A conditional date for 2003. Should this occur, the final decision would be made at the EU summits in June or December 2003 (and most preferably in June at the Salonica summit), well before the actual beginning of the enlargement process.
As to Cyprus’ EU membership, it is much easier to predict the outcome from the Copenhagen summit. The general tendency in the EU is to approve Greek Cyprus’ membership along with that of nine other countries. But there are still vexing questions on the issue. The Greek side is taking a flexible stance before the UN proposal and peace talks in order to ensure its membership. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is trying to convince the two leaders to put their signatures on some sort of a preliminary agreement which would open the doors for a permanent solution on the island. Now the picture is quite clear: The EU will accept the Greek side’s membership for the time being. As soon as a workable solution is reached at the end of the peace talks on the island, the EU will adopt a formula whereby the Turkish side will also join the Union. In this respect, no one should expect the Greek side’s membership to be cancelled or postponed.
What kind of a strategy will Ankara pursue after the Copenhagen summit? This is not yet clear. Will the new government be hemmed in by Rauf Denktas’s uncompromising attitude or act more pragmatically? How will Ankara react to the EU if it fails to meet Turkey’s expectations about the accession talks schedule? Will it part ways with Europe? Whatever happens at the Copenhagen summit, Turkey, without resorting to any emotional outbursts, should play its cards wisely and stick to its goal of integration with the EU, and continue to pursue a settlement on the Cyprus issue.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION