MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen comments on a possible operation by the US against Iraq. A summary of his column is as follows:
Everybody has been talking about a possible US operation against Iraq and what’s more, an related military operation by Turkey against its neighbor. The incidents that sparked these rumors were the drawing up of a draft constitution by two Kurdish groups in northern Iraq, one envisaging a federation with Kirkuk as its capital, and Ankara’s quick reaction against this. Things heated up after Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said that Turkey wouldn’t accept ‘the formation of such a Kurdish state,’ adding, ‘We don’t favor a war, but developments seem to be heading that way.’ These statements brought speculation in political circles to a near-boil.
Would Turkey carry out a ‘pre-emptive’ operation right now due to ‘hidden intentions,’ ones left unsaid in the draft put together by groups led by Barzani and Talabani? Our conversations with various officials and analysts give the impression that carrying out an operation against Iraq before the US or preparing a pre-emptive operation any time soon is out of the question. Perhaps the heated election atmosphere is creating an environment ripe for such speculation, but the official statements actually look much more like a kind of stern warning. As a matter of fact Ankara, which has been suspicious about the two Kurdish leaders’ long-term aims, is finding it advantageous to clearly declare its position right now. Ankara’s recent statements and declarations are clear messages not only to these leaders, but also to all the concerned countries, particularly the US.
Of course this doesn’t mean that Turkey will carry out a pre-emptive operation against Iraq immediately. The issue is multifaceted and rife with risks. Frankly, there is no situation at this stage that can be given as a cause for war. The Kurdish leaders are certainly saying that they aren’t seeking independence. They instead state that they will discuss a constitutional model envisaging a federal system with the administration in Baghdad -- in other words, a post-Saddam administration -- and other elements in the country, including the Turkmens. Speaking at a symposium in Istanbul this weekend, Iraqi Kurdistan Democrat Party’s (IKDP) Representative to Ankara Safeen Dizayee said that the Kurds in northern Iraq were ready to concede some of their advantages gained in recent years so that a federal system can be established within Iraq’s territorial integrity. Of course if a regime based on a consensus between Baghdad and the Kurds is established -- to use the words of Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM) Dr. Umit Ozdag -- ‘Turkey would have little to say. However, such a consensus is impossible.’ In such a situation, what would the Kurdish leaders do? Would they attempt to establish the federal status that they have been dreaming of, or put a ‘confederal’ status into practice with a view to set up an independent state in the future? Frankly, Ankara is worried about this, and as this concern is very serious and widespread, Ankara is objecting vociferously in order to send a crystal-clear message.
Developments on this issue are closely related to the US’ short and long-term plans concerning Iraq. What sort of a regime is the Bush administration planning to establish in Baghdad, and what sort of a future status does it see for northern Iraq? In tomorrow’s column I’ll give my answers to these questions, but for now I’ll just say that a possible US operation might spur a Turkish gambit to establish control in Iraq.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION