The Situation In Northern Iraq

MILLIYET- Columnist Fikret Bila writes on the Iraq issue and possible contingencies in northern Iraq. A summary of his column is as follows:
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz wrapped up his contacts in Ankara yesterday. Here is a summary of the message from his superiors that he delivered to President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel: ‘If Turkey opposes the US, it can’t dare to strike against Iraq. Turkey shouldn’t lend the US that courage.’ In turn, Ankara gave the following response: ‘The US is well aware that Turkey has, from the very beginning, been against a military intervention. Yet, we alone may not be able to convince the US to not to undertake an operation in Iraq. So you’d better watch your steps and do as what the UN tells you. Try not to give Washington reasons for such an intervention.’
Developments in northern Iraq were also discussed in Ankara yesterday. Aziz blamed the US for Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani’s designs on the region, and said that both Ankara and Baghdad had commmon concerns on the issue. He furthermore argued that his government had been able to come to terms with Barzani and Talabani, but that the US had managed to scuttle the whole thing.
In terms of Turkey’s attitude, Ankara has been waiting for this week to arrive, when Barzani and Talabani are expected to convene a Kurdish regional Parliament. Turkey demands and rightfully expects that Iraq’s Turkmens also be invited to participate in this assembly. The end result to emerge from this convention will determine Turkey’s stance on the issue. When I asked Foreign Minister Gurel about the situation at hand, he told me, ‘Barzani and Talabani won’t go too far, I expect. If they do something rash like declaring independence, Turkey’s reaction will be very firm, and it won’t let such ‘a fait accompli’ take hold. But if they act within reasonable limits and grant a place for the Turkmens in that Parliament, we will continue our relations. Otherwise, Turkey won’t hesitate to take any needed action, including the military option. Both the US and circles in northern Iraq have been kept very well informed about Turkey’s sensitivities.’ Prime Minister Ecevit has been making similar statements recently, saying that Turkey has serious concerns about northern Iraq. The National Security Council (MGK) discussed the issue in detail at its last meeting. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) told it that the Turkish Army stood ready for every possible contingency in the region and was capable of intervening immediately if Turkey’s interests necessitated it. What the TSK needed was merely the political will to stand behind carrying out such a task.
Meanwhile, Ankara is also trying to get the US to pay attention to developments in northern Iraq. It’s known that it is thanks to the US that Barzani and Talabani are finding their courage to take certain steps. However, Ankara is cautioning the US that the only partnership capable of establishing stability and order in the region is one of Turkey and the US, not of the US and the Kurdish groups. And the situation in Iraq seems to grow even more complicated.