MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen writes on Turkey’s stance on the Iraq issue. A summary of his column is as follows:
There are strong signs that US President George W. Bush is determined to strike against Iraq to oust its leader Saddam Hussein. During her visit to Ankara this week, US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones made remarks which underlined the US determination to overthrow Saddam’s regime.
Meanwhile, during the current meetings in Vienna between Iraqi officials and UN negotiators, although Iraq agreed to give UN weapons inspectors unrestricted access to most of the country, US representatives voiced their opposition to the return of the inspectors to Iraq without a new UN Security Council resolution threatening ‘consequences’ if Iraq obstructs their efforts. The Bush administration has so far insistently stated that its real purpose is not the return of UN inspectors but rather Iraq’s total disarmament, which means elimination of all weapons of mass destruction in Saddam’s possession. That’s why Bush is currently stepping up pressure both in the US Congress and the international community to get the authority to take unilateral military action if Saddam fails to comply with the UN disarmament resolutions. However, we also can’t deny that there is considerable opposition to Bush’s Iraq policy in the international community. We’ll have to wait and see whether this opposition can sway the US president.
In the wake of this week’s overlapping visits by Jones and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz, Turkey has clarified its stance on the Iraq issue. In fact, the Turkish government opposes a US war against Saddam, since the great economic and political fallout Turkey would suffer is all too clear. There are a host of predictions about the expected cost of a US-Iraq war. Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel recently recalled that 1991’s Gulf War hit Turkey with economic losses totaling some $100 billion. A recent report by the Turkish-Iraqi Business Council also predicted that Turkey would suffer $150 billion in losses in the aftermath of a possible conflict.
With these economic dimensions in mind, we should also focus on the possible political consequences of a war. Not only would a war shatter the delicate balances in our region but it would also likely alter the status quo in northern Iraq, which would spell new headaches for Turkey.
It’s now high time for us to draw up detailed plans. Our country’s politicians should take into consideration all the possible consequences of their actions. As far as I can see, our officials think that a war would be costlier for us if Turkey refuses to lend the US its military support. Which is exactly why they have to discuss what Turkey could obtain in return for its military and economic support.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION