CUMHURIYET- Columnist Mustafa Balbay writes on recent developments on the Iraq issue vis-a-vis this week’s separate visits of Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones. A summary of his column is as follows:
Within a few hours of each other, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and US Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones yesterday arrived separately in Ankara. Both came to ask for Turkey’s help. Turkey, in turn, told them, ‘You help me.’ All the high-level officials who met Jones yesterday sang the same tune: ‘Turkey is an ally of the US, and we believe that there is much we can do together in the 21st century. But we have serious reservations about the Iraq issue, and not just those related to Turkey’s situation alone. First of all, the Middle East cannot weather three simultaneous crises. There is the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, Afghanistan is also a part of the region. Now, when you add an Iraq adventure on top of these two, how will you justify and explain your reasons for this vexing trio? You should reconsider your plans. The economic dimensions of a possible operation’s impact on Turkey alone are huge enough. 1991’s Gulf War cost Turkey some $50 billion. Another war could plunge Turkey’s economy into a complete chaos.’ Jones’ response was short and to the point: ‘We are fully aware and have taken note of Turkey’s sensitivities on this issue. However, at the moment we are concerned about what the UN Security Council will decide.’
For Turkey the current situation is a real Scylla and Charybdis. If the US decides to move ahead on its own, Turkey will surely be politically at odds with Iraq. Yet, it will also have the right to demand direct compensation from the US for its economic loses due to an Iraq conflict. If it happens the other way round and the US gets to exercise its will in Iraq under UN auspices, this time Turkey will feel more comfortable in explaining its issues to Iraq and other countries, but it will lose the chance to request compensation. Moreover, the situation of the opposition groups in northern Iraq is another whole point of discussion. Turkey has already declared that the well-being of the Iraq’s Turkmen population is Turkey’s own responsibility.
Tariq Aziz was Ankara’s other guest yesterday. He is expected to deliver Saddam Hussein’s message to top levels of the state that what the US is planning would violate international law and that therefore it must be stopped. Turkey will then tell Saddam, essentially, be a good boy and do as the UN tells you.
Turkey is already quite busy with the Israel-Palestinian conflict as one of the very few states able to talk to both sides. In addition, Turkey has undertaken a great responsibility in Afghanistan, as well. And now, the Iraq issue. Here is one question Turkey has asked of neither Jones nor Aziz: ‘How far should Turkey get involved in the Iraq issue?’ This is the crucial question. Let me remind me my readers of last weekend’s meeting in Cappadocia where the situation of Iraq’s Turkmens was discussed. All in all, Turkey is seriously weighing every possible contingency in Iraq, and it seems that its Iraq agenda will grow even more tense.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION