What Will Happen Now?

STAR- Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli writes on a possible United States military operation in Iraq. A summary of her column is as follows:
When will the United States launch a military operation against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein? The world is currently preoccupied with this question. In the wake of US President George W. Bush’s speech to the UN last week, all world leaders now believe that the US is determined to strike Iraq whatever the cost. In his address, Bush demanded the UN persuade the Iraqi leader to comply with the relevant UN resolutions, warning that the US is prepared to act militarily against Iraq without UN support ‘if Saddam isn’t made to honor his previous commitments to disarm and allow inspectors into Iraq.’
In the wake of Bush’s UN address, international diplomatic circles have stepped up their efforts to persuade the Iraqi leader on certain sensitive issues. France has started working on a new UN Security Council resolution which we might call a ‘ultimatum light.’ In addition, Russia has launched an initiative to put together a kind of ‘friendship delegation’ to hold a meeting with Iraqi officials in Baghdad in the near future. Meanwhile, Bush isn’t holding his breath waiting for the Iraqi leader to make his move. The Bush administration said that the UN Security Council still should pass a toughly worded resolution warning of serious consequences if UN inspectors don't get complete access to all sites in Iraq. Bush has raised the specter of military action to overthrow Saddam if the Iraqi leader fails to take steps to disarm. He wants authority for such action to be included, at least implicitly, in any new Security Council resolution. The resolution should, US officials say, contain an indictment of Iraq for ignoring UN demands, an ultimatum, including a deadline of a perhaps a few weeks for Iraq to comply, and a threat of action if it does not. Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Colin Powell conveyed to Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel the US views on the issue in Washington in the form of a message to be passed onto Naci Sabri, the Iraqi foreign minister: ‘Tell the Iraqi officials that we’re not bluffing. There will be no second chances.’ This message means, according to diplomatic sources, that Iraq will be bombed without any second warning if Saddam fails to comply with the UN resolutions. Despite Saddam’s recent dramatic offer to allow UN arms inspectors to return to Iraq ‘without conditions,’ Bush warned that the world ‘must not be fooled’ by Iraq's offer, saying Saddam ‘has already delayed, denied and deceived the world’ over arms inspections. Meanwhile, the US is also continuing to negotiate with Arab countries which it has the best chance of receiving logistic support from. The Arab countries had previously been highly critical of Bush’s Iraq policy, but they seem to have been persuaded by Bush’s address urging UN member countries to compel Iraq to comply with Security Council directives on weapons of mass destruction. Turkish diplomats expect Bush to demand that Turkey let US troops be deployed at Incirlik Airbase and the Port of Mersin. In addition, the US is likely to put pressure on the Turkish government to take further measures to crack down on illegal immigrants. That’s not all. The US might also demand Turkey’s military support. Dear Turkish politicians, While you’re preoccupied with your discussions over early elections or the 10% threshold, Nostradamus’ famous prophecy that a ‘great war’ would take place in the Middle East between 2002-2003 is on the verge of being fulfilled...”

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION