U.S. Intervention Looks Likely

MILLIYET- Columnist Hursit Gunes writes about the possible effects of a likely US operation in Iraq on Turkey and how justified such an intervention would be. A summary of his column is as follows:
In recent weeks, we have seen a flurry of stories in the Western media concerning the possibility of US intervention in Iraq. The fact that the United States has once again stepped up its efforts on Iraq is important for Turkey, as Iraq is a neighboring country. However, Turkey is also an ally of the US, which means that Turkey has a key role to play in US relations with Iraq. The Iraqi issue is also important in terms of the International Monetary Fund-backed economic program that Turkey is trying to implement. Let’s not forget that the US Treasury has the largest say in the IMF, and it would be unthinkable for the US Treasury to act independently of the Pentagon. Hence, it looks unlikely that Turkey would be able to resist US pressure. President George W. Bush delivered a speech at the United Nations General Assembly last Thursday to ask for international support for US plans to oust Saddam Hussein. It’s clear that the US is getting impatient about Iraq. We all know that the UN wants Iraq to authorize the return of UN weapon inspectors there. However, as Iraqi Vice President Tariq Aziz recently refused to allow these inspectors to return, it seems that a US intervention has now become even more likely. Now the only thing left for the US to determine is the actual date and scope of the operation. The date will depend on the international alliance. So far, only Britain has pledged the kind of support the US is seeking. In fact, most European countries have openly declared their opposition to US plans, on the grounds that there is no Iraqi opposition to take over from Saddam Hussein. As for the operation itself, rumor has it that US forces will enter Iraq from its northern borders. This means that Turkey would play a key role. Whatever the scope of the operation, there’s no doubt that Turkish interests will be harmed tremendously. In addition Turkey has elections coming up in November. A weak government lacking sufficient knowledge on the issue will have great trouble negotiating with the US. Let’s not forget that this matter is of vital importance to Turkey’s security and its territorial integrity. The slightest mistake in policy formulation could lead to economic collapse and great risk to Turkish security. The US is trying to justify its plans to overthrow the Iraqi regime by claiming that Iraq has deliberately failed to comply with UN Security Council resolutions and provided support to international terrorism. It’s true that the Iraqi regime is a dictatorship, but we should ask ourselves, is Iraq really the only country to have an authoritarian regime? Of course not. So, we can see that the US justification lacks credibility. What is the real US motive? Is it to overthrow a dictator? Somehow, I don’t think so.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION