CUMHURIYET- Columnist Orhan Bursali comments on Republican People’s Party leader Deniz Baykal’s recent initiatives. A summary of his column is as follows:
Republican People’s Party leader Deniz Baykal called on Prime Minister and Democratic Left Party (DSP) leader Bulent Ecevit and New Turkey Party (YTP) leader Ismail Cem to join the CHP. I read both Cem and Ecevit’s responses carefully. They both stated that they didn’t favor Baykal’s calls to join. Cem said, ‘I’m interested neither in joining nor in annexation,’ Ecevit said, ‘Baykal told us to fold our tent and join them, which is very improper.’ Why can’t or won’t Baykal make a clear , proper call?
The first serious election opinion poll, carried out just after Kemal Dervis joined the CHP, revealed that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would likely win 30% of the votes, the CHP 20% and the True Path Party (DYP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) nearly 10% apiece. The CHP caught a good wind together with Dervis, and its sails should expect to billow more fully up until election day. However, the voters seem to be already decided. The AKP has apparently grabbed the top slot, and anything that might change this in the normal process of elections would be a major surprise. In other words, the CHP coming to power alone as the number one party is flat-out impossible.
Can the CHP come to power? Let’s consider what would happen if only the AKP and the CHP got into Parliament. In such a situation, the AKP’s coming to power alone and a lonely CHP at Parliament could result. A coalition of the AKP and the CHP is another possibility. Would the CHP think of such a thing? In other words, being a minority partner? I don’t think so, and I think it shouldn’t. Coming to power isn’t the only important thing; the important thing is to come to power under the best conditions. If a sole AKP-ruled government collapsed due to instability, could a CHP minority government be possible? This might come true with a new elections program. Let’s consider that the possibility of an alliance of the DYP, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), and even the People’s Democracy Party (HADEP) with certain socialists and social democrats in Parliament. Under these circumstances, we can talk theoretically about a coalition led by the CHP. What can the CHP do with a MHP, which doesn’t want Dervis, and with a coalition consisting of Ciller? However, it’s clear that the next government will be able to endure for a maximum of two years. The weight of Turkey’s main problems and the political parties’ lack of strategic development targets has made the seat of power into an ordeal for the political parties. As soon as they come to the power, the parties’ process of wasting away begins automatically. In other words, a coalition, which is the common denominator of different programs and understandings, is one of the worst alternatives for the CHP.
So does the CHP have a chance of becoming the top party after the elections? If it can attract all of the votes of the YTP and the DSP, yes it can. Baykal and his staff also must be looking into this alternative, at least on paper. However, Baykal has avoided entering an institutional alliance with these two parties. He based his plans on the idea that he would be able to combine the votes of these two parties with the CHP in elections. For this purpose, he is making good use of Dervis’s momentum, but this dream is night-unattainable. We have to consider that the YTP and the DSP will have a total of 4-5% of the votes at least. Even if there are extraordinary circumstances and even if he works miracles, it would be difficult for Baykal to change this possibility. This share of 5%, which will be outside Parliament, might provide Baykal and his colleagues with a chance for social democratic power. Baykal stands on the threshold of a historic chance. If he can use the next day before candidate lists are declared to do the math and weigh the statistical possibilities, he will be able to make history as a leader who paved his road to power consciously. In addition, he will serve our democracy greatly and put an end to discussions about the legitimacy of Parliament. Thus, he will lay the foundation for the unity of the main powers of the social democrats under the roof of the CHP.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION