MILLIYET- Columnist Sami Kohen writes on the US shifting attitude in its plans to strike at Iraq and the developing situation in northern Iraq. A summary of his column is as follows:
The probability of a US military attack on Iraq in the very near future seems to have recently lost some of the wind from its sails. No matter how the ‘hawks’ in Washington are hell-bent to go ahead, President Bush will only be able to make up his mind on the issue in early 2003 at the earliest. Among the various reasons for this delay –- perhaps the most important one under the circumstances –- is the opposition to a war in Iraq on the part of some prominent US political figures who advised the Bush administration not to go into another dangerous adventure in Iraq. As defense analyst Robert Levine wrote in a column in the International Herald Tribune, President Bush is quite concerned that he listen to these voices, especially on the eve of the US congressional elections set for November. It is known that Washington has been searching for alternative methods to military intervention for bringing down Saddam Hussein. In other words, the president is determined to try every option to achieve his goal, but also to keep the military one in reserve like a sword of Damocles’ hanging over Iraq. Meanwhile, Saddam hasn’t missed the opportunity to capitalize on the US’s difficulties. Moreover, the US efforts to bring Iraqi opposition leaders together for concerted action against Saddam has so far not gone well. Additionally, Russia, too, is trying to improve its relations with Iraq. As far as Turkey is concerned, the prevention of a possible war in Iraq carries, for very obvious reasons, great importance. However, the issue has another aspect crucial to Turkey: the situation in northern Iraq. No matter whether the US launches an operation in Iraq or not, Turkey is going to be seriously occupied by this problem. As we stated earlier, Turkey believes that the balance between the most two powerful groups in the region has shifted. Massoud Barzani, who displayed more of a pro-Turkey attitude in the past, and Jalal Talabani, who used to be mostly at odds with Turkey, now seem to have switched places. Turkey is quite anxious about a draft constitution prepared by Barzani for Iraq, one which would give a Kurdish state there a near-autonomous status. And yet, there is still a chance to ease this ‘psychological war’: Barzani’s aide Hoshyar Zabari is expected to visit our country next week. Turkish authorities will be able to once again reiterate Turkey’s sensitivities on the issue. Surely, Barzani is aware of Turkey’s role in the reshaping of Iraq, and he must be reminded that he doesn’t have the luxury of losing Turkey’s support.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION