MILLIYET- Columnist Taha Akyol comments on the recently shifting landscape of Turkish politics. A summary of his column is as follows:
There has been an earthquake of near-epic proportions among Turkey’s voters. Will the total of votes for the Motherland Party (ANAP) and the True Path Party (DYP), which attracted nearly half of all votes a decade ago, be able to reach even 20% in November’s elections? This 30% hemorrhaging represents the votes gained by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). There will also be a loss of votes on the left, even if not quite this much. Most probably the Democratic Left Party (DSP) will prove unable to reach the elections threshold and the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will emerge the largest party of the left. Could Ecevit be satisfied with such a result? Although I don’t favor the left, I wouldn’t be happy with such a result for Mr. Ecevit because of my respect for him. Ex-Economy Minister Dervis is thinking along these lines: ‘The DSP’s legal status and Ecevit’s DSP leadership will continue, at least in name.’ A honorary title, for example, ‘leader emeritus,’ suitable to Ecevit’s respected personality and his historical mission on the left, will be proposed. Politicians from the DSP will thereafter be candidates on the CHP’s list. Would Ecevit accept this? He has in fact rejected it. As he said yesterday, ‘I don’t have time to waste on alliances.’
After Dervis decided on a ‘leftist alliance’ instead of a broad-based alliance, he said, ‘Not a single vote for the left should be wasted.’ These words of his are very significant. Every vote going for a leftist party which fails to pass the threshold means diminished leftist representation in Parliament. This situation is much the same for the right as well. Public opinion polls show that the CHP is the second- most-popular party, following the AKP. The CHP might attract more votes during the elections campaign. In such a situation, the CHP might gain more deputies than it does votes due to the setup of our elections system. In the last elections the MHP was the number two party, gaining 24% of 550 deputies with 18 votes. Although the ground is very shaky, we can say that if such a thing occurs, the left will be strongly represented by the CHP in Parliament, but it’s a dream for the CHP to come to power alone.
On the right, this shakiness and fracturing goes even deeper. According to my calculations, more than 40% of voters jumped ship from one party to another on the right in the last three elections, causing a great deal of instability. The votes that broke off from the two main parties on the center-right did not go to each other. Then, we saw initially the rise of the Welfare Party (RP) and the Felicity Party (SP), and then of the MHP. Now the AKP’s star is rising even more, in part by attracting such leftist stalwarts as Murat Basesgioglu and Koksal Toptan. From now on, the AKP is a party on the center-right and the more it grows, the more it will squeeze out the MHP, the DYP and ANAP. Why is the CHP, an opposition party, rising so much while the DYP is finding it hard to do the same? Ciller must be thinking hard about this. The DYP’s administrators labeling the AKP ‘more dangerous’ than its previous partner (the defunct RP) won’t stop its rise, either. However, it shouldn’t be forgotten that votes attracted in such a short period of time might desert the AKP just as quickly because their alliance is thin. On the other hand, the AKP might shock ANAP and the DYP in these elections. If a shock of poll failures occurs in these elections, this situation might inevitably cause a restructuring on the center-right. Even if the right has been unable to establish its own Dervis figure, remember that nature abhors a vacuum.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION