TURKIYE- Columnist Yilmaz Oztuna writes about the likelihood of a US intervention in Iraq and the reactions it may spark in the international community. A summary of his column is as follows:
The United States is using diplomacy to prepare itself for war in Iraq. The preparations are taking quite a long time. US requests and expectations from Turkey for this planned operation are more numerous compared to the Gulf War 11 years ago. The reason is, it has less support from its partners this time around. A clear-cut Republican defeat in the US congressional elections this November is the only way an operation in Iraq can be prevented, because those results would mean that the American public does not want war in Iraq. There are members of the US administration such as Secretary of State Colin Powell who believe that an operation should be postponed (Powell was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the Gulf War). Neither Saddam Hussein unexpectedly accepting UN monitoring of Iraq's weapons nor a change of regime in Iraq occurring seem at all likely. Washington knows that Turkey doesn't want a war in Iraq and that Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, whose popularity has taken a nosedive due to his US-friendly attitude, is particularly set against the idea. The US puts more trust in politicians it knows better such as Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, former Foreign Minister Ismail Cem and Democratic Turkey Party (DTP) leader Mehmet Ali Bayar, an ex-diplomat at Turkish Embassy in the US. But in any case, the US wants to secure Turkish support and commitment before the general elections take place in Turkey on Nov. 3. The Arab states will not show much more support to Iraq than they do to the Palestinians. In fact the Arab countries don't even like Saddam. However, they will oppose intervention in Iraq to protect the interests of the Arab League. Also, the object of their criticism will be Turkey rather than the US, due to their interests in good bilateral relations. Ankara can't and won't simply say 'We don't want to have anything to do with war in Iraq.' Turkey is not as frightened of Saddam's racist Arab policies and its weapons, but there are Turkmens and Kurds in Iraq and that's why Turkey is already very much involved.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION