STAR- Columnist Omer Celik writes on the high probability of a US military attack on Iraq and its impact on Turkey’s early elections expected on Nov. 3. A summary of his column is as follows:
Yesterday in Ankara the traffic at the top levels of the state administration suddenly intensified after Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit and Chief of General Staff Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu held a meeting. This intensity cut across the heated debate on early elections proposed to be held on Nov. 3. It is very likely that the political atmosphere in Ankara is going to get even hotter in the days to come. Later in the afternoon, Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel joined Ecevit and Gen.Kivrikoglu, and this trio then met with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. After that, Ecevit and Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu held a separate meeting, giving some clues about the meaning of this intense traffic. Meanwhile, US Ambassador to Ankara Robert Pearson went to the Foreign Ministry twice to speak with Undersecretary Ugur Ziyal. This cluster of meetings points to two things: a US attack on Iraq, and the ever-stronger probability of Turkey’s military intervention in northern Iraq. Turkey initially has two strategic concerns about the issue. Firstly, it does not want to face a financial loss similar to the one incurred in the Gulf War, which cost some $35 billion at the time. Secondly and more importantly is the high probability of a Kurdish state being formed in northern Iraq. Certainly, Turkey has a military plan ready to be immediately deployed if such an attack takes place and if conditions make such an intervention necessary. Under these circumstances, early elections may be endangered. In case of such a postponement of early elections and Turkey’s active participation in a war on Iraq, we will be facing a much more threatening picture. Turkey is again at crossroads with a very fragile political conjuncture.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION