MILLIYET- Columnist Yasemin Congar writes about the possible date of a US operation in Iraq and what the US could expect from Turkey. A summary of her column is as follows:
Being a Turkish journalist in Washington sometimes entails being asked the same questions over and over again which in turn necessitates giving the same answers repeatedly. Just last week I received many e-mails asking about early elections, the European Union and the US plans for an operation in Iraq, which is why I decided to write this article as a reply to all those questions. To begin with, when will the US operation in Iraq begin, and what will the US ask of Turkey? It has now become clear that the US won’t change its mind about trying to oust Saddam Hussein, but also that President Bush still hasn’t decided when and how such an operation will be launched. It is nevertheless predicted that the operation will begin sometime between this November and next February. Because ground troops will have to be sent in, the operation is expected to last for at least three months. The political situation in the US will affect the timing of the operation. President Bush may want to wait until after the Congressional elections in November, or he may decide that such an operation could boost the votes of his Republican Party. In the latter case he may launch the operation at the end of October before those elections. Developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the attitude of Arab countries towards US activity in Iraq will also affect the timing of the operation. While the US is busy preparing for this attack, Turkey may be getting ready to hold elections or may be in the middle of trying to form a government in the post-election period. The US may decide to wait until such a government is formed or it may assume that our chief of General Staff will have the final say on the subject. Therefore Bush may not wait until elections are held. The scope and the form of the operation will determine what the US will ask of Turkey. Firstly Turkey will be expected to change its ‘anti-operation’ rhetoric and start acting in an anti-Saddam, pro-US mode. Secondly the US will want to use Turkish airbases as launch pads for bombing sorties against Iraq. Also if the US decides on a total war, which includes fighting on the ground, the use of Turkish soil by US troops will considerably decrease the cost of the operation while increasing its chances of success. The US could also ask Turkey to send in its own troops, but US officials state that they are aware of Turkish reluctance to do so. What kind of government does the US want in Turkey? Obviously Bush would prefer a government that would be ready to support the US war against terrorism and more specifically, its intervention in Iraq. In addition it would like to see a government committed to IMF reforms as well as the objective of membership in the EU. Pro-Islamist or nationalist parties are not considered to be ideal, reliable partners. To sum up, we can say that the US hopes to have a government committed to political and economic reforms in addition to cooperation with the US. This explains the US’ support for Economy Minister Kemal Dervis.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION