The West Expects A Strong Government In November

STAR- Columnist Zeypnep Gurcanli writes on the political crisis in Turkey and its repercussions on the US and the EU. A summary her column is as follows:
The US and the European Union are following the government crisis in Turkey probably more closely than are the Turkish people, as this political crisis is concerned with two timetables in the US and the EU. US President George W. Bush is resolved to carry the fight against terrorism he started in Afghanistan to Iraq. Bush, who ended the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and challenged Arafat in the Middle East, has started operations to overthrow the ‘real enemy,’ Saddam Hussein. US Assistant Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz will come to Ankara next week to sound out the situation in Turkey. Wolfowitz, who is a Turkey booster as well as a leading ‘hawk’ advocating the overthrow of Saddam, will learn the concerns and expectations of Turkish officials. The US will shape its plans in line with these views. Bush is expected to wait until after the elections for the US Congress this November to begin an operation against Iraq. Therefore, the US needs a serious and stable government in Ankara to coordinate its operation plans against Iraq. The second issue which causes concern in the US is the economic situation. State Minister Dervis’ statement saying that the cause of economic instability is psychological has been noted in Washington. The US expects the formation of a strong government in order to break this psychological barrier either through elections or from the Parliament itself. When all these conditions are cited, it is apparent that the US expects either immediate elections and a new government in November or a new government and elections in autumn 2003. The EU timetable is a little more complex. On the EU calendar there are three issues which concern Turkey in the short term. They are the proposed European army, or the ESDP, Turkey’s membership process and the Cyprus problem. The European Union will decide on admitting new members at the end of December. Therefore, the EU expects a strong, stable government in Turkey in November at the latest. This in turn depends on immediate elections or the formation of a strong and new government. If a decision on ‘immediate elections’ is made, the European Commission in its October Progress Report on Turkey may say that Turkey is determined to complete its reforms. However, as a result of democracy, the elections came in between. Therefore the reforms were not carried out. This in turn would prevent the closing of the EU doors to Turkey. The deadline given for a new government either formed within the Parliament or at the end of new elections is November. If Turkey can accomplish reforms in between, it will still have the right to get a date for the beginning of accession negotiations. On the ESDP there is not that much time. The EU wants to take over the responsibility of the peacekeeping force in Macedonia in autumn all by itself. This will be the EU’s first military operation. However, the EU still lacks the facilities and capabilities to run this operation. Therefore it needs NATO and the key to NATO’s facilities and capabilities is in Turkey’s hands. That is to say the ESDP issue has to be solved as soon as possible. The EU needs a strong counterpart, a stable government in Turkey to negotiate on the issue. The concern over Cyprus is due to the fact that the political instability in Turkey is influencing negotiations in Cyprus. The lifting of Turkey’s pressure, and the withdrawal of TRNC President Denktas from the talks, is a nightmare scenario for the EU. When all these issues are enumerated, the political preferences of the EU for Turkey are the same as those of the US. Both the EU and US officials are expected to convey these messages to Ankara in two important visits. Commissioner Romano Prodi from the EU and Assistant Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz will pay two separate visits to Ankara next week. Both Prodi and Wolfowitz will give the same messages to Turkey even though with different goals. ‘Instability in Turkey will influence the whole region.’ That is if they can find a governmet to relay this message to.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION