An Equation With Three Unknowns

CUMHURIYET- Columnist Cuneyt Arcayurek writes on the recent political developments concerning the split in the Democratic Left Party (DSP) and the crisis in the government. A summary of his column is as follows:
Turkey’s fate hangs on an equation with three unknowns, to wit: What will be the fate of the government as headed by the DSP? Who will lead the new party formation of DSP defectors? And are the early elections going to be held on Nov. 3 or at an earlier date? The government question hinges on Prime Minister Ecevit’s decision, and Ecevit on his coalition partners. Ecevit’s strategy is clear; he is going to meet his coalition partners Bahceli and Yilmaz on the question of government and his own prime ministry. Bahceli is of the opinion that Ecevit should stay at his post until elections are held. Whereas Yilmaz’s Motherland Party (ANAP) is putting forth its own condition that the Parliament should be back from recess to work and that necessary changes be made for the fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria. On the other hand, there are also strong signs -- such as the appointment of new ministers to fill the recently vacated posts -– pointing to the government continuing to carry on. Moreover, the coalition government still has its numerical superiority within the Parliament, even if the number of the DSP’s deputies decreases to the 80s. A vote of confidence is safely secured: the opposition would need 276 votes to overthrow the government, but at present that looks impossible. The timing for early elections is another problem. Devlet Bahceli, the head of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), proposed a date of Nov. 3, whereas ANAP and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) want elections to be held earlier. When it comes to the new party formation, the question is that of leadership. Will it be Husamettin Ozkan or Kemal Dervis? Or will it be Ismail Cem, who might also quit DSP in the very near future? We need one more week for the fog to lift so we can see clearly.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION