U.S. Role On Cyprus

MILLIYET- Columnist Yasemin Congar writes on the probable role of the US in a solution of the Cyprus problem. A summary of her column is as follows:
The lack of progress in face-to-face negotiations between the leaders of two communities on the island strengthens the possibility of a Cyprus crisis at the end of the year. Those who say that if the EU invites Cyprus by only addressing the Greek Cypriot administration then no alternative will be left to Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Cyprus (TRNC) but to draw a 'separate but joint' path, are giving indications that they are inclined to integrate the north of the island with Turkey. US diplomats are following these indications with concern. They believe that the integration of the TRNC with Turkey may result in a deterioration of relations with both Greece and the EU and even with the West in general. This deterioration may spook foreign investors, upset the markets and cause new tremors in the Turkish economy. For Washington, which probably will ask for Turkey's support at the end of the year for a strike in Iraq, this is a pessimistic scenario. There may be those who think that the weaker Turkey is the more it may suit the US' purposes, as it can use Turkey easily to do its bidding. It is true that economic and political troubles have weakened Ankara's hand to act effectively and independently in regional matters. However, Washington cannot trust the support of a weak Ankara. We could see the strengthening of anti-western, anti-American feelings and the emergence of Islamist or ultra-nationalist currents if there is a crisis over Cyprus-EU relations. Therefore, a fire spread by a Cypriot admittance into the EU is contrary to US interests. However, the US administration has not changed its policy of supporting Cypriot admittance into the EU with or without a solution, as they consider EU membership to be in the benefit of both sides. When asked how they can be both frightened of a fire but in favor of the first spark which may ignite it, the US officials are saying that EU membership must encourage a political solution on the island. Notwithstanding the impasse in the Denktas-Clerides negotiations, this hope is being reiterated. One US diplomat has said that if the sides take advantage of a new opportunity which will give them a calendar for a solution in autumn, a great stride will have to been taken not only for the Turkish Cypriots but also for Turkey's admittance into the Union. This belief gives the impression that Turks are participating in the negotiations not to find a solution to the problem, but rather to show that they are not the ones hampering a solution. The US official said that if Cyprus were admitted into the EU as it is, many Turkish Cypriots would leave the TRNC and take Greek Cypriot and European passports. Two scholars of the subject, Philip H. Gordon from the Brookings Institute and Henri Barkey from Lehigh University, have a suggestion on the issue which ties a solution to the Cyprus issue to Turkey's admittance to the Union. The admittance of the Greek Cypriots should not be considered the end of a process but rather the first step for the Turkish side's admittance together with Turkey's admittance into the organization. These two analysts believe that Athens and the Greek Cypriot side should be persuaded to accept Turkey's EU membership and a political solution in Cyprus, and that Ankara should be discouraged from integrating Northern Cyprus. Gordon and Barkey know that it will not be easy, but are of the opinion that preventing a crisis in the Turkey-EU-West triangle lies this way.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION