The Heaviest Cost: Uncertainty

MILLIYET- Columnist Hasan Cemal writes on the recent uncertainty seen in Turkey’s economy and politics. A summary of his column is as follows:
Uncertainty is hanging like a cloud over Turkish politics. Is the economic cost of this political uncertainty less than that of general elections? In answer to this question, State Minister Responsible for the Economy Kemal Dervis carefully avoiding speaking about elections said that certainly the continuance of such an uncertainty was the heaviest cost. Observers following Turkey’s internal and foreign markets could not think otherwise. There are two important reasons for this uncertainty. The first is the ill health of Prime Minister Ecevit and the second is the difference of opinion among the coalition partners regarding the European Union. Dervis does not want to talk about the prime minister’s health. However, he is following the developments regarding the EU with concern. He attaches special importance to Turkey’s getting a date or a calendar for the beginning of its accession negotiations. Dervis said, “The Copenhagen criteria are not being requested only from Turkey. The correct thing to do for Turkey is to accept these criteria approved by everyone as soon as possible.’ He added that obtaining a date from the EU at the end of the year would affect the Turkish economy positively. I want to underline Dervis’ words that the continuance of uncertainty is the heaviest cost. The cost of political uncertainty stemming from the prime minister’s ill health has been escalating and is getting heavier day by day. There is no doubt that Prime Minister Ecevit has good intentions in his views regarding his own health and state administration. However, are good intentions enough? Can his good will help to overcome the increasing problem of confidence in both internal and foreign markets? In addition, how much can the coordination desired in the government regarding the economy help matters? It is not realistic to believe that issues will be solved only through coordination. In short, with Ecevit the prospect of overcoming the confidence problem in the markets is indeed distant. If the clouds of uncertainty hanging over us can be dispersed, the situation may quickly improve as the necessary infrastructure is there. The statement issued by the Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodities Exchange (TOBB) contains correct evaluations and recommendations. We hope that both the ruling parties and opposition parties listen to these in Ankara.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION