Two Ends Of The Stick

CUMHURIYET- Columnist Hikmet Bila writes on the letter Prime Minister Ecevit sent this week to Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. A summary of his column is as follows:
The letter Prime Minister Ecevit sent to Iraqi leader Hussein has shown that the fever on our borders is rising. Ecevit's message is clear. He says that the situation is serious, and even dangerous, and that therefore Saddam has to allow weapons inspections. During the Peace Operation for Cyprus in 1974, Prime Minister Ecevit instructed the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) not to shoot unless they were fired upon. The same good intentions are reflected in his letter to Saddam. The IMF has agreed to loan us $ 16billion over 2002-2004 in return for our Letter of Intent. The IMF will send $9 billion of this amount immediately, and the rest will folloq in the coming years. IMF European I Department Director Michael Deppler was asked recently how a possible intervention in Iraq might affect Turkey's program. Deppler answered that it could lead to instability in the region, and that new shocks could also be felt. 'However, as this has been taken into consideration in the program, we do not expect any great problems.' It seems that the US is bent on toppling Saddam. Europe, which is standing by Saddam, doesn't care what Russia or China is saying. Recently, US President Bush and his deputies have been stressing their determination to overthrow Saddam and that only the date and method of such an action is being debated. Allowing the inspection of weapons would only delay this intervention. Turkey's future somehow depends on Saddam's future. There are two views: According to the first, a war in Iraq would lead to the downfall of Saddam and the division of Iraq. A Kurdish state will be established in the north and a Shiite state in the south. This would upset all balances in the Middle East. Turkey would not favor the establishment of a Kurdish state. According to the second view, Saddam and his regime are a threat to the Middle East and his neighbours. He has weapons of mass destruction and he can use them in any part of world, at any time. Therefore he must be overthrown. A partition of Iraq is not inevitable. What is more, a de facto Kurdish state is being established today anyway. Clearly, Turkey's future depends on that of Saddam. The US has decided to enter a war with Iraq. It is impossible for Turkey to be left out when the US decides to implement its plan. If Turkey enters such a fight, can the present political and economic structure tolerate this war, or if it stands on the sidelines what will be the consequences? We are in a serious situation indeed.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION