By Sami Kohen
How will the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the new Iranian president influence Turkish-Iranian relations? Ankara officially thinks that this is Iran’s internal affairs and the Iranian people’s choice. However, Turkish officials and analysts don’t help things by saying, ‘If Rafsanjani had won the elections, it would have been better.’ The reason is that Turkey knows Rafsanjani well. He valued relations with Turkey and when necessary, had talked with the radical establishment led by Ayatollah Khamenei. However, how Ahmadinejad will act in domestic and foreign affairs and in relations with Turkey is uncertain. As one official said, ‘Now we’re facing a new situation. We need to follow a wait-and-see policy.’ Official circles in Turkey hope that the recently improved bilateral relations will continue in this direction during the new era.
Will the new president be brave enough to make certain openings in foreign relations or will he choose to stand with the radicals? There are two opinions about this. Taking into account his background and character, some people think that he will radicalize Iran both at home and abroad. Others think that he will make certain realistic openings in order to keep the economic promises he made to the Iranian people. Now there are certain arguments for and against these two views. However, we shouldn’t forget that incidents in Iran develop not according to the logic of analyses, but in accordance to the ‘reality of Iran.’ Therefore, the best thing to do now is to wait for him to send his first clear signals.
Ahmadinejad’s statements during his first post-election press conference didn’t offer any clues. Actually he doesn’t have much experience or knowledge in foreign policy. His remarks at the press conference reflect Tehran’s usual position. For example, there’s nothing new in Iran’s stance towards the US or its nuclear program. According to certain official circles in Washington, Iran might take a harder line and the US would then take such firm measures as economic sanctions to rein it in. discipline Iran. Meanwhile, some people think that Ahmadinejad might show his revolutionary stance in foreign policy, ushering in a new period of tension in the region. We hope this won’t happen. Such stances don’t solve problems. We hope that Ahmadinejad’s election will open a new page in Iran’s actions and foreign policy. Even if this is unlikely to happen, let’s wait and see.