Both Good And Bad

BY SAMI KOHEN
MILLIYET- Is it bad for Turkey that France rejected the European Union constitution? Will the new situation in the EU help or hinder Turkey’s membership hopes?
If we look at the subject from all aspects, we can see that the post-referendum developments create both new opportunities and serious obstacles for Turkey.
For this reason, we have to observe very closely what kind of an identity and mission the EU will choose for itself in this new crisis atmosphere.
When we start our membership talks on Oct. 3, the ambiguity that exists now will have to be dispelled, so that we can understand what kind of a Europe we will negotiate with. But this requires time.
At this stage, the new situation that has emerged as a result of the French ‘no’ vote to the EU constitution – which could become even stronger if a similar result is obtained in Netherlands today – may bring beneficial results for Turkey.
The constitution which was rejected by the French actually contained some articles that don’t fit Turkey’s views. For this reason, the shelving of the constitution can be seen as a good development for Turkey at first glance.
In this new critical stage, the EU may need Turkey more than before. The present crisis will reduce the power of the EU, especially in the political and strategic areas. In this respect, some European leaders may see Turkey’s membership to the EU as an advantage. Turkey, with its economic potential and geostrategic location, may add a new strength to the EU.
However, it would be wrong to reconcile ourselves with the possibilities listed above and conclude that the French ‘no’ vote is for Turkey’s benefit. The rejection of the EU constitution also does not serve Turkey’s interests in some respects.
Now the EU will turn inwards, and take care of its own problems, but when dealing with these problems it will slow down the enlargement process.
The ‘no’ vote in France – and in the Netherlands to some extent – has shown that there is a phobia against Turkey.
French President Jacques Chirac, who has defended Turkey’s EU bid, is now much weaker. But his rival Nicolas Sarkozy, who views Turkey less favorably than Chirac, is getting stronger every day. The same thing can be said for Angela Merkel in Germany.
So it’s too early to hazard a guess whether the ‘no’ vote in France has been good or bad for Turkey. The best thing to do now is to make a good analysis of what kind of a Europe is being formed and at the same time, to make preparations for Oct. 3 and go ahead.