BY DERYA SAZAK
MILLIYET- The French rejection of the EU constitution by about 55% to 45% caused hesitation and disappointment about the EU’s future. People are discussing the fallout of the vote, which also concerns Turkey. I talked to German Parliament Foreign Affairs Commission Chairman Volker Ruhe during last year’s NATO summit in Istanbul. Back then there was more than six months to the Dec. 17 summit and everybody was saying that even if membership negotiations start with the EU, Turkey might face serious problems before 2010 or so. As if he guessed the current situation, the experienced German politician said, ‘Those who reject Turkey’s EU membership will hold a referendum in 2005-2007. They will use the EU Constitution as a shield.’ When the French people rejected the European Constitution, the political will they showed is certainly an expression of a resistance against the policy of enlargement which also includes Turkey. Obviously, domestic political factors, French President Jacques Chirac’s weakness, the negative impact of the EU ideal on social policies, sovereignty, fear of unemployment and concerns on the future of the agriculture were major reasons for this rejection.
When Chirac said, ‘The EU will continue its road under the same conditions,’ he tried to shake off the referendum, but obviously the French people have passed through a historic threshold. The French rejection is expected to create a domino effect in other EU member countries which will hold a referendum as well. If the early elections decision taken by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder causes the Christian Democrats to come to power this fall, the new German leadership led by Angela Merkel might have a state of mind similar to France and try to redefine the ‘core Europe.’ The model envisaged for Turkey would be a ‘privileged partnership.’ Maybe it’s too early to talk about these issues. Turkey’s EU membership negotiations to start in October might not be influenced by today’s ill winds. However, it’s also clear that nothing will be the same with France’s decision. Those who govern Turkey should clarify their minds concerning the EU. How can an EU journey be possible with a political power which is trying to permit religious groups to give Koran courses? If this situation continues, we might run into trouble before our EU membership.