BY FAIK OZTRAK
MILLIYET- The official results of the weekend’s French referendum on the European Union constitution will be announced today. Unfortunately, the latest polls predicted that the ‘no’ camp had won a resounding victory.
France is one of the six leading and founding countries of the bloc. Moreover, a former French president was one of the guiding figures in the crafting of the EU constitution. But why aren’t the French supporting the constitution? The Union's constitutional treaty seems to some to impose sweeping changes. Yet in fact, most of its provisions come straight from the bloc’s founding agreements; in other words, they aren’t new at all. In addition, under the new treaty, France would have a stronger hand thanks to a number of changes in decision-making processes. I guess the French nation had a hard time accepting the handing-over of national sovereignty to a trans-national institution. It was easy for the World War II generation to accept this idea, but the new one is cold to the idea.
The two most important factors behind the French reaction are perhaps Europe’s economic stagnation and its ever-rising unemployment. The old continent is having difficulties embracing new reforms to adapt itself to the new conditions set by a new global order. Where there is no economic growth, political decision-makers can’t sustain the social welfare state, a concept that the Europeans are very familiar with.
Political analysts once argued that the bloc’s enlargement process would be a solution to these problems. However, unemployment rose even more after new countries joined the Union. Europeans are now fearful of losing their jobs due to cheap Polish and other Eastern European labor. This is also one of the most important reasons why most Europeans don’t want Turkey in.
The Europeans have started to see both Brussels and the enlargement process as a threat to their own welfare. The process initiated by the French vote will continue with this Wednesday’s Dutch referendum and Germany’s early elections. Turkey is likely to face major bumps and shocks on the eve of its membership negotiations. Due to the French opposition, Brussels is being more cautious in evaluating our reform process. One of my concerns is whether Ankara is capable of resisting increasing pressure without losing sight of its ultimate goal, namely full membership.
What we should do now is to avoid acting like the Europeans. In other words, we shouldn’t blame foreigners and their home countries for our own problems but instead try harder than ever to improve ourselves, reinforce our structural reforms and fiscal discipline, and avoid steps that could lead to political instability.