TEHRAN - Iran has once again backed down to European and US pressure over its nuclear programme faced with the threat of being hauled before the UN Security Council, putting the issue on hold until after its presidential elections.
Despite weeks of brinkmanship and threats of an imminent resumption of fuel work -- at the centre of suspicions the clerical regime is seeking to acquire atomic weapons --, Iranian negotiators instead found themselves in a corner.
A restart of its uranium conversion work, a precursor to the ultra-sensitive process of enrichment, would have violated a deal struck last November with Britain, France and Germany.
But Iran was hoping that the Europeans would be forced into accepting a partial resumption of Iran's nuclear programme. The EU-3, however, refused to budge.
"Our position was perfectly clear: the suspension and the negotiations should continue. There is no question of a compromise from our side," a European diplomat close to the negotiations told AFP.
With US backing, the EU-3 had also started to draw up contingency plans on referring Iran to the Security Council during the next International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The diplomat said "the Iranians were aware of this."
At emergency talks in Geneva on Wednesday, the Iranians effectively made a climb-down -- agreeing to hold off from breaking the deal and securing the promise of European proposals to move the negotiations forward by August.
"It was pragmatism that won the day, and not ideology," explained Hamid Reza Jalaipour, an Iranian political analyst. "All those who want the actions to be based on ideology will be the losers."
According to another diplomat, "the Iranians realised that the Europeans were not messing about".
Analysts believe Iran was unwilling to be plunged into yet another international crisis -- given that it has presidential elections on June 17 and the regime is desperate to see a strong voter turnout.
"Diplomatic manoeuvring" was how Jalaipour explained Tehran's tough stance before the negotiations.
A favorite in the election race is powerful cleric and former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- seen as a pragmatic conservative and potentially a figure who may be more open to a deal on the nuclear issue.
Senior Western diplomats posted in Tehran deny favouring Rafsanjani, and say even if he wins there is no guarantee of a long-term nuclear accord that satisfies both sides.
But one envoy did nevertheless say "it is possible Rafsanjani could find the keys to negotiations that others may not". Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, is also seen as a figure who sits squarely in the Rafsanjani camp.
What the Europeans are trying to do is convince Iran to give up its nuclear fuel programme altogether, a step seen as the best "objective guarantee" that the country will not develop the capacity to make weapons.
In return, they are offering a package of incentives -- of which allowing Iran to begin World Trade Organisation (WTO) entry negotiations, agreed to the day after the talks after Washington lifted its opposition -- is just a part.
Iran has so far refused any such deal, but the lesson from the latest crisis appears to be that a pragmatic approach to the question is possible -- and that this may also set the tone for the forthcoming elections.
"Anyone who wants to make radical slogans will not win the elections, because we can not move forward on slogans," asserted Jalaipour.
And even hardliners appear to accept the strategy, despite their calls in recent weeks to ignore threats of a Security Council referral -- something that could put Iran on a slippery slope to sanctions and even conflict.
"Iran's main aim is to build trust so that it can continue its enrichment programme for peaceful purposes," said Amir Mohebbian, political news editor at the right-wing Ressalat newspaper.
"The continuation of the negotiations means that Iran is continuing the trust building process."
05/26/2005 12:48 GMT