DUBAI - Iraq's most wanted man, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is likely wounded as reported on Islamist websites, longtime Al-Qaeda watchers said Wednesday, dismissing expressions of caution from Washington.
Analysts pointed to the lack of a denial from Zarqawi's supporters, who have been quick to rebutt previous US and Iraqi boasts of successes against leading aides of the Al-Qaeda frontman.
"The announcement has a certain credibility because it is signed by Abu Maisara al-Iraqi," the nom de guerre of Zarqawi's designated spokesman, said London-based journalist Abdel Bari Atwan, who has been a close follower of Al-Qaeda affairs since interviewing Osama bin Laden in the 1990s.
"Al-Qaeda has not published any denial, nearly 24 hours after the announcement of Zarqawi's wounds," said Atwan, who edits the Arabic-language daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi.
"Zarqawi has undoubtedly been seriously injured. If he was lightly or moderately wounded, Al-Qaeda would never have announced it," said Atwan, ruling out any "manoeuvre by Al-Qaeda to put his pursuers off the scent".
"I even think that Zarqawi is on his deathbed. The statement seems to be a prelude for the worst," said Atwan.
Yasser Serri, who heads a London-based watchdog that champions Islamist causes, agreed.
"The call on Muslims to pray for Zarqawi is a significant indication of the seriousness of the his wounds," said Serri.
"In Islam, resorting to prayers is the last resort."
Serri too pointed to "the absence of an Al-Qaeda denial" as reason for lending credibility to the announcement posted Tuesday on the Al-Hesba and Al-Khaymah websites regularly used by Zarqawi's supporters.
But Serri insisted "Zarqawi is not yet dead or else Al-Qaeda would have announced it because every combattant, and Zarqawi in particular, aspires to victory and martyrdom in Islam."
The Islamic Observatory chief added that Zarqawi's US and Iraqi foes should not be too quick to celebrate his apparent removal from circulation.
"The jihad (holy war) in Iraq will not stop with the death of Zarqawi. And the statement itself insisted that Zarqawi had formed a generation of combattants" to take up arms after him, he said.
Washington, normally quick to talks up successes against Zarqawi's militants, voiced caution after news broke of his reported wounding.
"There are a lot of these things that have happened in the past that have not panned out," a US official said. "All I can say at this point is I would approach it a little cautiously."
Islamist chatrooms were divided about the genuineness of Zarqawi's reported injuries.
"Sheikh Zarqawi is in good health... Do not believe the crusaders' media," said one contributor.
Another denounced what he saw as "a manoeuvre by the enemies of Islam who want to demoralise the mujahedeen."
But a third disagreed, and added that he had heard from his own sources in Iraq that the Al-Qaeda frontman had suffered gunshot wounds.
"Zarqawi was wounded by a bullet in the right lung," he said.
"He is suffering from respiratory difficulties. He was secretly evacuated to a neighbouring country, together with two volunteer doctors, one Saudi and the other Sudanese."
Zarqawi's group has been behind many of the deadliest bombings and hostage beheadings in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein two years ago and the United States has put a 25 million dollar price on his head.
Bin Laden himself named the fugitive Jordanian Islamist his Iraq commander late last year.
05/25/2005 15:43 GMT