THE HAGUE - Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said Friday he was confident of success in a June 1 Dutch referendum on the EU constitution, even though a string of polls have shown the "no" vote to be strengthening its lead.
"I do not want to speculate about what will happen if the 'no' wins. I am putting my money on the 'yes' vote, I am optimistic," he said in a wide-ranging interview with De Volkskrant newspaper, 10 days ahead of the consultative vote.
Balkenende -- who has struggled to rally support for the text, with approval for his centre-right government at a dismal 19 percent -- said the referendum campaign would be a "short, strong and clean" fight.
Recent opinion polls have consistently pointed to a victory for the Dutch "no" camp. The latest poll, published on Thursday, suggesting 54 percent of voters would reject the EU treaty, while only 27 percent would vote for it.
As in France, where opposition to the treaty has fed off the government's unpopularity, as well as anxiety over the EU's expansion to the east and south, the Dutch debate has been swayed by fears and concerns unrelated to the text.
More than half of the Dutch supporters of the no" camp said they wished to block Turkey's EU bid, while a quarter wanted to defy Balkenende's government.
The Dutch referendum is non-binding, but the main political parties have said they will take it into account when the text comes up for parliamentary approval if turnout exceeds 30 percent -- even though, according to the prime minister, 85 percent of lawmakers support the constitution.
In his weekly press conference later on Friday Balkenende declined to speculate on what would happen if the French voted against the constitution in their referendum three days before the Dutch vote.
"In any case there will be a Dutch referendum and after that there will be a debate in parliament about the constitution," Balkenende said, dispelling rumours that the Dutch might abandon their their referendum if the French vote 'no'.
In his interview Balkenende sought to dispel the idea of a link between the treaty's adoption and Turkey's EU membership bid -- stressing that these were "two separate issues", and insisting the text would actually toughen up EU membership criteria.
In answer to concerns that the EU constitution could erode national sovereignty by creating a "super state", he said: "I think the treaty provides sufficient guarantees against a super state.
"We will retain our identity within Europe," he said.
"Subjects such as soft drugs, euthanasia and abortion will remain national issues, nothing is dictated by Brussels," he stressed, in answer to concerns that EU legislation could overrule the country's tolerant laws on such issues.
In sum, the prime minister said, the constitution was a necessary response to the bloc's enlargement and was "an improvement on the current rules within the union."
Without removing member states' individual right of veto over certain EU decisions, as the constitutional treaty proposes, Balkenende argued that the EU would be ungovernable.
"It is unthinkable that a single country putting on the brakes should be able to paralyse the entire union," he said.
On foreign policy, Balkenende insisted on the need for the EU to speak with one voice, saying he was still "pained" by the divisions over the US-led war in Iraq, which split EU states into two bitterly opposed camps.
In response to Dutch concerns that the constitution would massively ramp up the bloc's military capacity, he argued the text aimed to bring" more authority... which is not the same as the 'militarisation' we are accused of."
05/20/2005 17:54 GMT