LONDON - While a Labour victory seems virtually certain in Thursday's election, one question intrigues British political observers more than most.
It is whether Prime Minister Tony Blair will step down midway through an eventual third term in power and make way for Gordon Brown, both an ally and a rival who has been waiting in the wings to succeed him.
Blair, who will celebrate his 52nd birthday on Friday, has said repeatedly he intends to carry out a third term if his party wins it. "There's masses for me to do," he said recently.
However, few believe him.
The campaign has been tough, with the Conservatives exploiting public doubts about Blair's honesty in his decision to join the US-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
Only 32 percent of respondents to a Mori/Observer poll published Sunday think Blair is trustworthy, while 52 percent say Brown is. And even among Labour supporters, only 25 percent want Blair to finish a third term.
Commentators expect the prime minister to eventually pass the torch to the 54-year-old Brown, and many believe he has been bound for years by a secret deal to do so.
"I have on many occasions said that Gordon Brown will make an excellent prime minister," Blair said, tantalizing journalists with his use of the word "will."
Though they were reported to be so angry at each other a few months ago that they could barely talk to each other, the pair have been virtually inseparable since the official campaign was launched April 5.
Blair is charismatic, a great communicator, but worn down by eight years in power and by relentless attacks over Iraq, while Brown, 54, though taciturn, still has a good image and gets the credit for Labour's economic success.
Brown's public defense of Blair following the leak of the legal advice about the legality of going to war in Iraq revived speculation that the pair have an understanding.
The British press said the two men were together paving the way for a cabinet reshuffle.
"Gordon is going to be allowed to have a say and Tony will respect that his allies must be looked after, not just to avoid a snub, but so that they can advance in time for when Gordon becomes leader," a source close to both men was quoted as saying in The Sunday Times.
For Robert Worcester, the director of the Mori polling institute, the handover will not even take one year.
Worcester said Labour would win Thursday with only a 60-80 seat majority in the 646-seat Commons, leaving the prime minister with a much smaller margin for maneuver than in the last parliament.
Blair, he predicted, will lose the referendum on the European constitution in early 2006, if it does indeed take place after an expected "no" vote in France. He would then hand over to Brown.
"If they win the referendum, he goes out on a high," Worcester told reporters. "If they don't win it, he's a lame duck," all the more so because Blair has already ruled out a fourth term, he added.
"What's going to keep him there, other than eclipsing Margaret Thatcher?" Worcester asked.
To beat Thatcher's 11 and a half years in power, Blair would have to stay in office until November 2008, a scenario which was not ruled out by John Rentoul, a commentator at the Independent on Sunday.
Rentoul said a French "no" in the referendum on the constitution would remove a major thorn in Blair's side. He asked what then could avert a rebirth of Blairism, "his Indian summer?"
The commentator insisted there was no deal with Brown, nor could there have been one for him to succeed Blair quickly. The prime minister is as ambitious as ever, Rentoul said.
05/02/2005 11:31 GMT