US Army expects to reduce force size in Iraq: general

by Jim Mannion
WASHINGTON - The US Army expects to reduce the size of its force in Iraq later this year and next because of gains from successful elections and a campaign against Iraqi insurgents, the Army's number two officer said Thursday.
General Richard Cody, the Army's vice chief of staff, put no numbers on the scope of the anticipated reduction, telling reporters that the planning for the next rotation of forces would not be complete until April.
But his comments reflected optimism about the military's plan to gradually turn over responsibility for security to Iraqi forces while shifting the role of US forces from combat to training and assisting Iraqi units.
"I think for the next force rotation, we'll start seeing that force coming in will be smaller than the force that is in there right now," Cody told reporters.
"The number is to be determined and it's really based upon where they are in country with the Iraqi battalions, the Iraqi brigades, the Iraqi divisions as well as the security environments in each one of the provinces," he said.
US force levels in Iraq already are coming down from the current level of 150,000 to about 138,000 around the end of the month as units whose tours were extended for the January 30 elections return home. That would leave the equivalent of 17 combat brigades in Iraq.
Cody said the mix and size of later deploying brigades in a rotation that begins in June would be altered to fit conditions on the ground.
Asked whether it would mean fewer troops, Cody said, "I would think so."
The changes would include brigades from the 4th Infantry Division and the 101st Airborne Division, he said.
Those divisions are slated to arrive in Iraq late this year and early next, an Army spokeswoman said. But she said the reductions in the size of the force that Cody referred to were expected to come in the period between 2006 through 2008.
"Because of the success of the election and because of the success of the counter-insurgency as well as the rapid growth of the Iraqi national guard and the Iraqi army teams, now with assistance teams of the Army and from the marines in sector, we think that the ... formation will change a little bit," Cody said.
"It could be less combat patrol companies, or less equipment or a combination thereof," he said.
"I've seen several proposal, and right now Centcom and MNFI are working it," he said, referring to the military commands for US forces in the Middle East and Iraq. "They think they'll have it done by April, and then we'll readjust."
The Army's force planning for Iraq has been way off before, however.
In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, commanders asked the Army to field a lighter force with fewer tanks and armored fighting vehicles and more Humvees, only to find themselves scrambling to armor the thin-skinned vehicles as the insurgency heated up in September 2003.
Cody acknowledged that plans originally called for bringing down the force in Iraq to four or five brigades, or about 20,000 troops, by 2004.
He said the US military did not anticipate high level of insurgent violence because it did not appreciate the impact on country's people and infrastructure of 25 years under Saddam Hussein's rule.
"Everybody thought we were going to get this thing done in one year or two years," he said.
"I mean the lesson learned from all of this is look how long it has taken to build an Iraqi army. We should all pay attention to it. You can't mass produce a quality army overnight," he said.
"The same thing could be said about your courts, your police, your judges, your legal system, your financial system. All those things had to be redone automatically, simultaneously," he said.
The US strategy depends heavily on being able to field a credible Iraqi force that can take control over localities first and then regions, allowing US forces to pull back from combat operations to what Cody called "strategic overwatch."
The general said the Army is pulling 660 officers and non-commissioned officers from the Army and joint staffs to train and advise Iraqi units. Another 1,140 will come from Army and marine units in country, he said.

03/17/2005 21:16 GMT