BY FIKRET BILA
MILLIYET- The top issue of this week’s European Union Troika meeting in Istanbul was Turkey’s promise to sign a supplementary protocol which would expand the Customs Union to include 10 more EU members, including Greek Cyprus. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn repeatedly emphasized Turkey’s need to sign the protocol. Turkey had promised to sign the protocol last December, so that it could get a date from the EU to begin its membership talks. Rehn claimed that Turkey’s signing the protocol is a must both for beginning membership talks and solving the Cyprus issue.
Turkey will eventually sign the protocol in order to honor its commitment, but is seeking a way to do so with as little backlash as possible.
First, Turkey considered arguing that signing the protocol actually does not mean Turkey recognizes Greek Cyprus and placing a ‘reserve’ in the protocol for this purpose. The European Union turned this option down.
Turkey had one course remaining: to issue a declaration after signing the document. But is it really enough to say, ‘We signed the protocol, but this doesn’t mean that we’ve recognized the Greek Cypriots.’ The Greek Cypriot administration recently announced that such a declaration would mean nothing outside of Ankara.
Ankara is also considering seeking the support of prominent international scholars, such as Maurice Mendelson, on the recognition issue. However, it’s doubtful what good the statements of a few academics could do to strengthen Turkey’s hand.
The EU will also demand that the protocol be approved by the Turkish Parliament before our membership talks begin. The government, however, will probably wait until Oct. 3, when the talks are due to start. If not, it could encounter a great deal of opposition.
A third possibility is that the Greek Cypriots may not agree to compromise, despite Turkey’s signing the protocol. A few days ago, Greek Cypriot Justice Minister Doros Theodoru repeated that the Greek side doesn’t really want the Cyprus issue settled. Under these conditions, they don’t need a solution anyway. Since Greek Cyprus is now a member of the EU, Greek Cypriots can freely express their policy based on obstructionism.
In order to convince the Greek Cypriots to participate in negotiations (let alone agree on a solution) Turkey has to agree on a plan that is largely in favor of meeting their needs. The Annan plan could be reworked for this purpose, or a brand new plan could be devised. In any case, the Greek Cypriots will have the upper hand.
The current situation is the result of the EU’s policy in favor of Greek Cypriots. Taking itself as the ‘winner’ on its way to the EU, the Turkish side will more likely be relegated as the ‘loser’ on this path.