As we have focused on developments in Iraq and Syria for some time, we could not take up other significant developments in the region. This week we are going to briefly examine developments in Iran, Egypt and Bahrain.
By Serhat Erkmen
US imposing more economic sanctions on Iran and many European countries joining this process, has started to wear down Iran. Although Iranian leaders said that they would not sell oil to countries imposing sanctions if pressure was stepped up, latest developments indicate that Iran’s trump card is that powerful. Economic recession brought Iran on the brink of a bottleneck. Therefore the state started intervening more in the economy than before. The government said that it increased economic aid to people by 50%. This can result in a long term relief but such practices implemented in other countries in the past had caused serious inflation. This economic aid implementation led by President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad might result in the same way. However, it would not be right to attribute this economic situation only to sanctions and their effects. Parliamentary elections held in Iran deeply shook political balances in the country Ahmedinejad supporters who suffered a heavy blow ahead of presidential elections to be held next year, have already started to prepare for the elections. Ahmedinejad and his team who hold the view that people’s economic problems are more important than political developments, do not intend to give up the power struggle. Therefore, whatever its results are, they are likely to continue such practices to win people’s support.
The second item on our agenda this week is the Egyptian constitution. Although it has been a year since the revolution, the situation is not calm in the country. The Freedom and Justice Party close to Muslim Brotherhood that emerged victorious in the elections that lasted three months, and Nour Party that came in the second place play an important role in drafting the constitution. However, despite success achieved by both parties in the election, they have a hard job in the parliament because the opposition goes through a serious test during the process of drafting the constitution. Fierce debates were held last week. Some parties including the liberals left the voting. Weak parties accuse the two big parties of using authoritarian methods. Although liberal and leftist parties that make up one third of the parliament say that cannot represent themselves sufficiently, election results enforce such a political balance. The process of drafting a new constitution that has resulted in such debates indicates that a more difficult period will be experienced in the long term. However, the new constitution is not the only source of political tensions in the country. Freedom and Justice Party wants Kamal Ganzouri government appointed by the High Military Council that controlled Egypt in the transition period, to resign but both Ganzouri and the military Council reject this demand. Freedom and Justice Party wants to overthrow the government by a motion of censure. Allegations that the Military Council would dissolve the parliament after the government would be overthrown were sufficient for Muslim Brotherhood to take to the streets. Quite a few parties asked people to take to the streets for another revolution but this time it seems that liberals and leftist parties will not display resistance shown to Mubarak.
The last item on our agenda this week is Bahrain. Bahrain is the first example in the Arab Spring of a country suppressed by force. Peaceful demonstrations that started about a year ago were quelled after Bahrain’s king asked for help from Saudi Arabia but protests started once again last week. Demonstrations staged last week, turned to clashes between demonstrators and police. Clashes erupted in some villages too and this may raise tensions in the country. Bahrain’s most important aspect is that democratic demands overlap with sectarian differences. That is protesters are Shiite Arabs and they criticize Sunni Arabs. Due to this situation, Bahrain has a special place in the Middle East. Although there isn’t an expectation of a change in Bahrain’s government, if incidents grow, they can reach a dimension that will lead to trouble not only in this country but also in the Persian Gulf.