Iraq's most critical era

BY FERAI TINC
HURRIYET- Yesterday’s announcement of election results ushered in a third era for Iraq. The first was the Gulf War, the second was the US invasion, and the third will see the search for Iraq’s new political fate. The election results showed that the United Iraqi Alliance, a Shiite group, got nearly half of the votes. However, it didn’t win a two-thirds majority. The next-biggest vote winner for the Iraqi interim Parliament was the Kurds. For the first time in Iraqi history, Shiites and Kurds constitute a majority. This will cause problems in an era in which consensus is badly needed. Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s list including Shiite candidates has a better position than other lists. Allawi even sought alliances a few days ago by meeting with Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq. However, the real struggle will start today.
The post-election era is full of obstacles, both predictable and unexpected. The first step will be finding a president and his two deputies. Talabani is one candidate. However, the Shiites previously spoke about making a Sunni the president, making a Shiite the prime minister and making a Kurd the Parliament speaker. However, their latest remarks signal that they will insist on the presidency. A two-thirds majority in Parliament is needed to elect the head of state and his deputies. Bargaining for alliances will start with this and never end. After naming a president and his deputies, the prime minister will be appointed and the Parliament established. In addition, the Parliament speaker will have a very important position because he will liaison with the committee preparing the constitution. The second most important stage is drawing up the constitution. There are four important issues which might cause conflict. Kurds favor a federal Iraq, while all other groups, including the Shiites, want a unitary state. In addition, the Kurds don’t want to give up their right to veto. How to solve the Kirkuk issue is unclear. There is also the problem of the regime. Will Iraq become an Islamic republic, as the Shiites want? The next eight months will be difficult. In addition, even when the constitution is ready, the problems won’t end. The Parliament will vote on the constitution in October. If it’s accepted, general elections will be held. Otherwise, it’s back to square one. Iraq’s neighbors and the entire world will intervene in this process. Thus, this is the most critical era for Iraq, that is, the third act.